NFL Picks - Wild Card Playoffs

I was 9-7 in Week 17 picking winners (Las Vegas was 13-3), and I hit none of the 4 upsets I picked. I am 154-102 (60.2%) on the season.

My Chargers played pretty well in beating Oakland 30-17. I predicted Chargers 24-16 over the Raiders. If the Bolts had not recovered a fumble in the end zone, it might have been 23-17. The Chargers tried to be careful to keep their starters well, and succeeded in that while winning the game. So the Chargers end up 11-5 in the regular season, with a 6 game winning streak.

Here are my Wild Card Playoff picks of winners (Vegas favorites denoted by odds, home team denoted with an H):

NFC Playoff Games:

* Washington Redskins (9-7) over Seattle Seahawks (10-6) (H) (-3.5).

* New York Giants (10-6) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) (H) (-2.5).

AFC Playoff Games:

* Jacksonville (11-5) over Pittsburgh (10-6) (H) (-2).

* San Diego (11-5) (H) (-9) over Tennessee (10-6).

The Chargers have a great incentive to win this game - to finally get the "playoff loser" monkey off their backs. I do think that the Chargers game will be close - decided by a field goal in a defensive battle. I'll guess the score will be 17-13 Bolts.

I've picked only one home team, and only one favorite. My rationale is that Washington, NY Giants nad Jacksonville have better teams right now than their opponents. I've only been right 60% of the time so far this year ...

Here are my 32 team power ratings (my estimates based on won-lost record and point differential) after 16 games:

1. New England (16-0) ........... PR = 38
2. Dallas (13-3) ........................ PR = 32
3. Indianapolis (13-3) ............ PR = 31
4. Green Bay (13-3) ................ PR = 30
5. Jacksonville (11-5) .............. PR = 28

6. San Diego (11-5) ............... PR = 27
7. Pittsburgh (10-6) ................. PR = 26
8. Seattle (10-6) ...................... PR = 25
9. Tennessee (10-6) ............... PR = 24
10. Cleveland (10-6) ................ PR = 24

11. Washington (9-7) ........... PR = 23
12. New York Giants (10-6) ..... PR = 23
13. Tampa Bay (9-7) .............. PR = 23
14. Minnesota (8-8) ............. PR = 21
15. Philadelphia (8-8) .......... PR = 21

16. Houston (8-8) ............... PR = 20
17. Arizona (8-8) .................. PR = 20
18. New Orleans (7-9) ........ PR = 19
19. Cincinnati (7-9) ........... PR = 18
20. Chicago (7-9) .................. PR = 18

21. Buffalo (7-9) ................... PR = 17
22. Denver (7-9) .................... PR = 16
23. Carolina (7-9) ................ PR = 16
24. Detroit (7-9) .................. PR = 15
25. San Francisco (5-11) .... PR = 13

26. Baltimore (5-11) ............ PR = 13
27. NY Jets (4-12) ............... PR = 13
28. Oakland (4-12) ............... PR = 12
29. Kansas City (4-12) ......... PR = 12
30. Atlanta (4-12) ................ PR = 11

31. St. Louis (3-13) ............. PR = 10
32. Miami (1-15) .................. PR = 8