NFL Picks - Week 11

The tenth week of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 12-2 in week 10 picking winners (79-51 on the year), while Las Vegas was 8-3-3 picking winners in week 10 (93-47-4 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 11 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 13 November

New York Jets (6-3) (+3) at New England (6-3): New England by 1

SUNDAY, 16 November:

San Diego (4-5) (+4.5) at Pittsburgh (6-3): Pittsburgh by 8
Denver (5-4) (+5.5) at Atlanta (6-3): Atlanta by 8
Oakland (2-7) (+10.5) at Miami (5-4): Miami by 15
Baltimore (6-3) (+6.5) at New York Giants (8-1): New York Giants by 9
Houston (3-6) (+8.5) at Indianapolis (5-4): Indianapolis by 9
Tennessee (9-0) (-3) at Jacksonville (4-5): Tennessee by 18
Chicago (5-4) (off) at Green Bay (4-5): even
Philadelphia (5-4) (-9) at Cincinnati (1-8): Philadelphia by 15
New Orleans (4-5) (-4.5) at Kansas City (1-8): New Orleans by 9
Detroit (0-9) (+14) at Carolina (7-2): Carolina by 26
Minnesota (5-4) (+4) at Tampa Bay (6-3): Tampa Bay by 8
St. Louis (2-7) (+6.5) at San Francisco (2-7): San Francisco by 8
Arizona (6-3) (-3) at Seattle (2-7): Arizona by 11
Dallas (5-4) (-2) at Washington (6-3): Washington by 5

MONDAY, 17 November:

Cleveland (3-6) (+4.5) at Buffalo (5-4): Buffalo by 8

I think the highest potential for upsets are Kansas City over New Orleans, Cleveland over Buffalo, and Dallas over Washington.

Here are my NFL power ratings after ten weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (9-0) -- 34
2. New York Giants (8-1) -- 32
3. Carolina Panthers (7-2) -- 28
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) -- 26
5. Tampa Bay Bucs (6-3) -- 26

6. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) -- 26
7. New York Jets (6-3) -- 26
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) -- 26
9. Philadelphia Eagles (6-3) -- 25
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-3) -- 25

11. New England Patriots (6-3) -- 24
12. Chicago Bears (5-4) -- 23
13. Washington Redskins (6-3) -- 23
14. Buffalo Bills (5-4) -- 21
15. Dallas Cowboys (5-4) -- 21

16. San Diego Chargers (4-5) -- 21
17. Indianapolis Colts (5-4) -- 21
18. Minnesota Vikings (5-4) -- 21
19. Miami Dolphins (5-4) -- 21
20. Green Bay Packers (4-5) -- 20

21. New Orleans Saints (4-5) -- 20
22. Denver Broncos (5-4) - 20
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) -- 19
24. Cleveland Browns (3-6) -- 16
25. Houston Texans (3-6) -- 15

26. Seattle Seahawks (2-7) -- 12
27. San Francisco 49ers (2-7) -- 12
28. Oakland Raiders (2-7) -- 9
29. Kansas City Chiefs (1-8) -- 8
30. St. Louis Rams (2-7) -- 7

31. Cincinnati Bengals (1-8) -- 7
32. Detroit Lions (0-9) -- 5

My Chargers needed a break to beat the Chiefs 20-19 - the Chiefs went for two points in the last minute, and lost it. The Chargers run offense was poor, and the defense was porous. They go up against the 6-3 Steelers, who are smarting from a close loss to the Colts. I think the Steelers will run the ball well, stuff the Chargers run and pass. I'll call it Steelers 20, Chargers 9.