NFL Picks - Week 14

Week 13 of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 11-3-2 in week 13 picking winners (109-64-5 on the year), while Las Vegas was 11-5 picking winners in week 13 (125-62-5 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 14 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 4 December:

Oakland (3-9) (+9) at San Diego (4-8): San Diego by 7

SUNDAY, 7 December:

Cincinnati (1-10-1) (+13.5) at Indianapolis: Indianapolis by 19
Jacksonville (4-8) (+6.5) at Chicago (6-6): Chicago by 8
Houston (5-7) (+6) at Green Bay (5-7): Green Bay by 4
Cleveland (4-8) (+13.5) at Tennessee (11-1): Tennessee by 20
Minnesota (7-5) (-7) at Detroit (0-12): Minnesota by 14
Washington (7-5) (+5) at Baltimore (8-4): Baltimore by 7
Philadelphia (6-5-1) (+7) at New York Giants (11-1): New York Giants by 12.5
Atlanta (8-4) (+3) at New Orleans (6-6): Atlanta by 1.5
New York Jets (8-4) (-4) at San Francisco (4-8): New York Jets by 7.5
Miami (7-5) (+1) vs. Buffalo (6-6) at Toronto: Buffalo by 1.5
Kansas City (2-10) (+9) at Denver (7-5): Denver by 15
St. Louis (2-10) (+14) at Arizona (7-5): Arizona by 18
Dallas (8-4) (+3) at Pittsburgh (9-3): Pittsburgh by 6.5
New England (7-5) (-5.5) at Seattle (2-10): New England by 14

MONDAY, 8 December:

Tampa Bay (9-3) (+3) at Carolina (9-3): Carolina by 2.5

I think the highest potential for upsets (versus Las Vegas) are Dallas over Pittsburgh, Miami over Buffalo, and Tampa Bay over Carolina. Teams in a must-win situation are Denver, San Diego, New England, Miami, Baltimore, Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Washington.

Here are my NFL power ratings after 13 weeks:

1. New York Giants (11-1) -- 33.0
2. Tennessee Titans (10-1) -- 32.8
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) -- 28.1
4. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-3) -- 27.7
5. Carolina Panthers (9-3) -- 27.1

6. Baltimore Ravens (8-4) -- 26.1
7. New York Jets (8-4) -- 25.5
8. Atlanta Falcons (8-4) -- 25.0
9. Dallas Cowboys (8-4) -- 24.7
10. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) -- 24.1

11. Philadelphia Eagles (6-5-1) -- 23.5
12. Minnesota Vikings (7-5) -- 22.6
13. Arizona Cardinals (7-5) -- 22.5
14. New England Patriots (7-5) -- 22.3
15. Miami Dolphins (7-5) -- 21.9

16. Washington Redskins (7-5) -- 21.7
17. Denver Broncos (7-5) - 21.4
18. New Orleans Saints (6-6) -- 20.7
19. Buffalo Bills (6-6) -- 20.4
20. Chicago Bears (6-6) -- 20.3

21. Green Bay Packers (5-7) -- 18.8
22. Houston Texans (5-7) -- 17.2
23. San Diego Chargers (4-8) -- 16.3
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) -- 15.4
25. Cleveland Browns (4-8) -- 15.3

26. San Francisco 49ers (4-8) -- 14.9
27. Oakland Raiders (3-9) -- 12.1
28. Seattle Seahawks (2-10) -- 11.1
29. Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) -- 9.4
30. St. Louis Rams (2-10) -- 7.8

31. Cincinnati Bengals (1-10-1) -- 7.7
32. Detroit Lions (0-12) -- 6.0

I predicted the Falcons win over the Chargers, even though my Power Ratings said the Chargers would win. My Chargers played terrible on offense, unable to run effectively, and unable to pass downfield. The defense couldn't stop the Falcons at critical times. One more loss and the Bolts probably don't make the playoffs (I said that the last two weeks too). Now the Raiders come to town, and this game concerns me. The Chargers beat them 28-18 in Oakland earlier, but had to come from 15-0 behind. My Power Ratings say Chargers by all 7, I think they will win 20-17, probably in the last minute.