NFL Picks - Week 16

Week 15 of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 9-7 in week 15 picking winners (129-72-5 on the year), while Las Vegas was 9-5-2 picking winners in week 15 (146-71-7 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 16 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 18 December:

Indianapolis (10-4) (-6.5) at Jacksonville (5-9): Indianapolis by 10.5

SATURDAY, 20 December:

Baltimore (9-5) (+5) at Dallas (9-5): Dallas by 1

SUNDAY, 21 December:

San Diego (6-8) (+3) at Tampa Bay (9-5): Tampa Bay by 9
Pittsburgh (10-4) (+1) at Tennessee (12-2): Tennessee by 4.5
Miami (9-5) (-4) at Kansas City (2-12): Miami by 13.5
Arizona (8-6) (+8) at New England (9-5): New England by 5.5
Cincinnati (2-11-1) (+3) at Cleveland (4-10): Cleveland by 8
Philadelphia (8-5-1) (-5) at Washington (7-7): Philadelphia by 2.5
San Francisco (5-9) (-5.5) at St. Louis (2-12): San Francisco by 6.5
Carolina (11-3) (+3) at New York Giants (11-3): New York Giants by 4
Atlanta (9-5) (+3) at Minnesota (9-5): Minnesota by 3
New Orleans (7-7) (-6.5) at Detroit (0-14): New Orleans by 15
New York Jets (9-5) (-4.5) at Seattle (3-11): New York Jets by 13
Houston (7-7) (-7) at Oakland (3-11): Houston by 7
Buffalo (6-8) (+7) at Denver (8-6): Denver by 6.5

MONDAY, December 22:

Green Bay (5-9) (+4.5) at Chicago (8-6): Chicago by 9

I think the highest potential for upsets (versus Las Vegas) are the Bengals over the Browns, the Chargers over the Bucs, and Pittsburgh over Tennessee. Teams in a must-win situation are San Diego, New England, Miami, NY Jets, Baltimore, Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta.

Here are my NFL power ratings after 15 weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (12-2) -- 32.6
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) -- 31.0
3. New York Giants (11-3) -- 30.3
4. Carolina Panthers (11-3) -- 29.4
5. Indianapolis Colts (10-4) -- 26.9

6. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) -- 26.0
7. New York Jets (9-5) -- 25.2
8. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-5) -- 25.1
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-5) -- 25.0
10. Minnesota Vikings (9-5) -- 24.9

11. Dallas Cowboys (9-5) -- 24.8
12. New England Patriots (9-5) -- 24.8
13. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1) -- 24.7
14. Miami Dolphins (9-5) -- 24.2
15. Arizona Cardinals (8-6) -- 22.5

16. Chicago Bears (8-6) -- 22.5
17. Denver Broncos (8-6) - 21.3
18. New Orleans Saints (7-7) -- 20.7
19. Houston Texans (7-7) -- 19.6
20. Washington Redskins (7-7) -- 19.4

21. San Diego Chargers (6-8) -- 18.8
22. Buffalo Bills (6-8) -- 18.0
23. Green Bay Packers (5-9) -- 16.6
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) -- 15.3
25. San Francisco 49ers (5-9) -- 15.2

26. Cleveland Browns (4-10) -- 12.7
27. Seattle Seahawks (3-11) -- 10.3
28. Oakland Raiders (3-11) -- 9.4
29. Cincinnati Bengals (2-11-1) -- 7.7
30. Kansas City Chiefs (2-12) -- 7.6

31. St. Louis Rams (2-12) -- 5.9
32. Detroit Lions (0-14) -- 2.4

I predicted the Chargers would barely beat the Chiefs 27-21, and the Bolts won 22-21, after playing a poor first half (behind 14-3 at the half, and 21-3 in the 3rd quarter). The running game was terrible because the line just cannot run block effectively, and the pass blocking is suspect too. Dielman got kicked out, and Hardwick got a concussion. One more loss and the Bolts won't make the playoffs (I said that the last four weeks too). Now the Bolts go on the road to Tampa Bay to play the Bucs. This is a must-win game for the Chargers and the Bucs. My Power Ratings say Tampa Bay by 9.5, but I think the Bolts will win 20-17 (hope springs eternal...).