NFL Picks - Week 10

Week 9 was another average week for my picks - I was 8-6 in Week 9 picking winners (Las Vegas was 9-5), and hit only 2 of the 6 upsets I picked. I am 79-51 (61%) on the season.

My Chargers flopped against Minnesota last week - I predicted Chargers 27-13. It was Chargers leading 14-7 at the half. Then the Vikings outscored the Bolts 28-3 in the second half, with Adrian Peterson gaining 296 yards in the game. Ouch.

This week, the Bolts are home at 5:15 PM on NBC to the Indianapolis Colts who are 7-1 on the season. The Colts lost in the last minute to the Patriots and have played well the last five games. They run well, they pass well, they play defense well. That's the Colts, not the Bolts. My prediction is a Colts win - 37-27.

Here are my week 10 picks (winners, home team denoted with an H):

Indianapolis (7-1) over San Diego (4-4) (H)
Tennessee (6-2) (H) over Jacksonville (5-3)
Kansas City (4-4) (H) over Denver (3-5)
Miami (0-8) (H) over Buffalo (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-2) (H) over Cleveland (5-3) (H)

New Orleans (4-4) (H) over St. Louis (0-8)
Atlanta (2-6) over Carolina (4-4) (H)
Washington (5-3) (H) over Philadelphia (3-5)
Minnesota (3-5) over Green Bay (7-1) (H)
Cincinnati (2-6) over Baltimore (4-4) (H)

Chicago (3-5) over Oakland (2-6) (H)
New York Giants (6-2) (H) over Dallas (6-2)
Detroit (6-2) over Arizona (3-5) (H)
Seattle (4-4) (H) over San Francisco (2-6)

I picked Miami (+3), Atlanta (+4.5), Minnesota (+6.5), Cincinnati (+4.5), NY Giants (+1.5) and Detroit (+1) as upsets. I picked 7 home teams (Las Vegas picked 7 home teams with 3 pick-ems). Why is Arizona favored over Detroit? Why is KC (H) and Denver a pick-em game? Why is Washington (H) and Philly a pick-em game? Why is Tennessee (H) and Jacksonville a pick-em game?

Here are my 32 team power ratings (my estimates) after 9 weeks:

1. New England (9-0) ............ PR = 36
2. Indianapolis (7-1) .............. PR = 30
3. Dallas (7-1) ......................... PR = 29
4. Green Bay (7-1) ................. PR = 27
5. Pittsburgh (6-2) ............... PR = 26

6. New York Giants (6-2) .... PR = 25
7. Detroit (6-2) .................... PR = 24
8. Tennessee (6-2) ................ PR = 24
9. Washington (5-3) ............. PR = 23
10. New Orleans (4-4) .......... PR = 22

11. Tampa Bay (5-4) .............. PR = 21
12. Cleveland (5-3) ................ PR = 21
13. Minnesota (3-5) ............. PR = 20
14. Jacksonville (5-3) ............ PR = 20
15. Kansas City (4-4) ............ PR = 20

16. San Diego (4-4) .............. PR = 20
17. Baltimore (4-4) .............. PR = 20
18. Seattle (4-4) ................... PR = 20
19. Buffalo (4-4) .................. PR = 19
20. Carolina (4-4) ................ PR = 18

21. Philadelphia (3-5) .......... PR = 17
22. Chicago (3-5) ................. PR = 17
23. Arizona (3-5) .................. PR = 16
24. Houston (4-5) ................ PR = 16
25. Cincinnati (2-6) ............. PR = 15

26. Denver (3-5) ................... PR = 15
27. Atlanta (2-6) .................. PR = 13
28. Oakland (2-6) ................ PR = 13
29. San Francisco (2-6) ...... PR = 11
30. NY Jets (1-8) ................. PR = 10

31. St. Louis (0-8) ................ PR = 10
32. Miami (0-8) ................... PR = 9

What do you think? Who should be ranked higher or lower? Should I make my picks based on my subjective power ratings?