NFL Picks - Week 12

Week 11 was not a real good week for my picks - I was 10-6 in Week 11 picking winners (Las Vegas was 11-4-1), and I hit only 1 of the 3 upsets I picked. I am 94-66 (58.8%) on the season.

My Chargers played well enough to lose against Jacksonville. I predicted Jaguars 23-20 over the Chargers - it was 24-17. Jacksonville got up 17-3 in the first half and the Chargers outscored them in the second half 14-7. The Chargers offense was better, but had to play from behind and two Philip Rivers interceptions in the 4th quarter killed their chances. The Jaguars offense was able to move the ball on the ground and in the air.

This week the Chargers are home to Baltimore, a 4-6 team that has lost 4 straight and is a lot like the Chargers - a strong defense with a suspect offense. The Chargers are favored by 9. My prediction is that it will be close game - I'll say Chargers 20-17 over the Ravens.

Here are my week 12 picks (winners, home team denoted with an H):

Green Bay (9-1) over Detroit (6-4) (H)
Dallas (9-1) (H) over NY Jets (2-8)
Indianapolis (8-2) over Atlanta (3-7) (H)
Denver (5-5) over Chicago (4-6) (H)
Tennessee (6-4) over Cincinnati (3-7) (H)
Jacksonville (7-3) (H) over Buffalo (5-5)
Kansas City (4-6) (H) over Oakland (2-8)
Cleveland (6-4) (H) over Houston (5-5)
Seattle (6-4) over St. Louis (2-8) (H)
NY Giants (7-3) (H) over Minnesota (4-6)
New Orleans (4-6) over Carolina (4-6) (H)
Washington (5-5) over Tampa Bay (6-4) (H)
Arizona (5-5) (H) over San Francisco (2-8)
San Diego (5-5) (H) over Baltimore (4-6)
New England (10-0) (H) over Philadelphia (5-5)
Pittsburgh (7-3) (H) over Miami (0-10)

I've picked Denver (+2.5), Tennessee (pick) and Washington (+3.5) as upsets this week. I picked 9 home teams (Las Vegas picked 10 home teams with 1 pick-ems). The odds this week are pretty close to what I think will happen.

Here are my 32 team power ratings (my estimates based on won-lost record and point differential) after 10 weeks:

1. New England (10-0) .......... PR = 37
2. Green Bay (9-1) ................. PR = 31
3. Dallas (9-1) ........................ PR = 30
4. Indianapolis (8-2) ............ PR = 28
5. Pittsburgh (7-3) ................ PR = 26

6. Jacksonville (7-3) ............. PR = 25
7. New York Giants (7-3) ..... PR = 24
8. Seattle (6-4) ..................... PR = 23
9. Tampa Bay (6-4) ............. PR = 23
10. Tennessee (6-4) ............. PR = 22

11. Cleveland (6-4) ............... PR = 22
12. Philadelphia (5-5) ......... PR = 20
13. Washington (5-5) .......... PR = 20
14. San Diego (5-5) .............. PR = 20
15. Detroit (6-4) .................. PR = 20

16. Denver (5-5) .................. PR = 19
17. Arizona (5-5) ................. PR = 19
18. Buffalo (5-5) .................. PR = 18
19. Minnesota (4-6) ............ PR = 18
20. Houston (5-5) ............... PR = 18

21. New Orleans (4-6) ........ PR = 18
22. Baltimore (4-6) ............ PR = 17
23. Kansas City (4-6) ......... PR = 17
24. Chicago (4-6) ............... PR = 17
25. Carolina (4-6) .............. PR = 17

26. Cincinnati (3-7) ........... PR = 15
27. Atlanta (3-7) ................ PR = 14
28. St. Louis (2-8) ............. PR = 12
29. NY Jets (2-8) .............. PR = 12
30. Oakland (2-8) ............. PR = 12

31. San Francisco (2-8) .... PR = 10
32. Miami (0-10) .............. PR = 9