NFL Picks - Week 11

Week 10 was a really poor week for my picks - I was 5-9 in Week 10 picking winners (Las Vegas was 7-4-3), and I hit only 2 of the 6 upsets I picked. I am 84-60 (58%) on the season.

My Chargers really lucked out against Indianapolis last week - I predicted Colts 37-27, and it ended Chargers 23-21. The Chargers special teams scored two TDs and the defense held the Colts ground game down and picked Manning 6 times. The Chargers offense was pathetic again - poor run blocking and pass protection resulted in too many punts, plus 3 turnovers including an end zone fumble. The Colts offense outscored the Chargers offense 15-10, but it's a team game. This week the Chargers travel to Jacksonville. The Jaguars have their QB back and a decent offense and defense. My prediction is a Jaguars win - 23-20.

Here are my week 11 picks (winners, home team denoted with an H):

Jacksonville (6-3) (H) over San Diego (5-4)
Indianapolis (7-2) (H) over Kansas City (4-5)
Minnesota (3-6) (H) over Oakland (2-7)
Baltimore (4-5) (H) over Cleveland (5-4)
Pittsburgh (7-2) over NY Jets (1-8) (H)
Tampa Bay (5-4) over Atlanta (3-6) (H)
Cincinnati (3-6) (H) over Arizona (4-5)
Philadelphia (4-5) (H) over Miami (0-9)
New England (9-0) over Buffalo (5-4) (H)
Dallas (8-1) (H) over Washington (5-4)
New Orleans (4-5) over Houston (4-5) (H)
Green Bay (8-1) (H) over Carolina (4-5)
Detroit (6-3) (H) over NY Giants (6-3)
St. Louis (1-8) over San Francisco (2-7) (H)
Seattle (5-4) (H) over Chicago (4-5)
Tennessee (6-3) over Denver (4-5) (H)

I've picked Baltimore (+2.5), St. Louis (+0) and Tennessee (+2) as upsets this week. I picked 10 home teams (Las Vegas picked 9 home teams with 3 pick-ems). The odds this week are pretty close to what I think will happen.

Here are my 32 team power ratings (my estimates) after 10 weeks:

1. New England (9-0) ........... PR = 36
2. Dallas (8-1) ....................... PR = 29
3. Indianapolis (7-2) ............ PR = 29
4. Green Bay (8-1) ................ PR = 28
5. Pittsburgh (7-2) ............... PR = 26

6. New York Giants (6-3) ..... PR = 23
7. Tennessee (6-3) ................. PR = 23
8. Jacksonville (6-3) ............. PR = 22
9. Detroit (6-3) ..................... PR = 22
10. Washington (5-4) ........... PR = 21

11. Seattle (5-4) ................... PR = 21
12. Tampa Bay (5-4) ............ PR = 21
13. Cleveland (5-4) ............... PR = 21
14. San Diego (5-4) ............. PR = 21
15. New Orleans (4-5) ......... PR = 20

16. Philadelphia (4-5) ......... PR = 19
17. Buffalo (5-4) .................. PR = 19
18. Minnesota (3-6) ............ PR = 19
19. Kansas City (4-5) .......... PR = 19
20. Baltimore (4-5) ............ PR = 19

21. Chicago (4-5) ................ PR = 18
22. Carolina (4-5) ............... PR = 17
23. Arizona (4-5) ................ PR = 17
24. Cincinnati (3-6) ........... PR = 17
25. Denver (4-5) ................. PR = 17

26. Houston (4-5) .............. PR = 16
27. Atlanta (3-6) ................ PR = 14
28. St. Louis (1-8) .............. PR = 12
29. Oakland (2-7) .............. PR = 12
30. San Francisco (2-7) .... PR = 10

31. NY Jets (1-8) ................ PR = 10
32. Miami (0-9) ................ PR = 10

What do you think? Who should be ranked higher or lower? Should I make my picks based on my subjective power ratings?