NFL Picks - Week 14

I was 8-8 in Week 13 picking winners (Las Vegas was 10-4-2), and I hit only 2 of the 6 upsets I picked. I am 113-79 (58.8%) on the season.

My Chargers played well enough to beat Kansas City 24-10. I predicted Chargers 20-16 over the Chiefs. The Bolts turned several long plays into touchdowns, but had trouble sustaining drives on offense. Tomlinson had several long runs, but Rivers was only 10-21. The defense played better - they had 8 sacks at KC could not protect the passer, who could find only Tony Gonzalez to catch the ball. This week the Chargers go to Tennessee, who is also 7-5 after beating Houston last week. They are like the Chargers - a decent defense with a suspect offense. The Titans are favored by 1.5. My prediction is that it will be close game - I'll say Chargers 21-17 over the Titans.

Here are my week 14 picks (winners, home team denoted with an H):

Chicago (5-7) over Washington (5-7) (H)
San Diego (7-5) over Tennessee (7-5) (H)
Jacksonville (8-4) (H) over Carolina (5-7)
Dallas (11-1) over Detroit (6-6) (H)
Buffalo (6-6) (H) over Miami (0-12)
NY Giants (8-4) over Philadelphia (5-7) (H)
Green Bay (10-2) (H) over Oakland (4-8)
New England (12-0) (H) over Pittsburgh (9-3)
Cincinnati (4-8) (H) over St. Louis (3-9)
Tampa Bay (8-4) over Houston (5-7) (H)
Seattle (8-4) (H) over Arizona (6-6)
Minnesota (6-6) over San Francisco (3-9) (H)
Cleveland (7-5) over NY Jets (3-9) (H)
Denver (5-7) (H) over Kansas City (4-8)
Indianapolis (10-2) over Baltimore (4-8) (H)
New Orleans (5-7) over Atlanta (3-9) (H)

I picked Chicago (+3), San Diego (+1.5), and NY Giants (+3) as upsets this week. I picked only 7 home teams (Las Vegas picked 10). This is a critical week for Chicago, Washington, Tennessee, Arizona, Detroit, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Baltimore, Denver and Cleveland as far as playoff spots go.

Here are my 32 team power ratings (my estimates based on won-lost record and point differential) after 12 games:

1. New England (12-0) ........... PR = 37
2. Dallas (11-1) ........................ PR = 33
3. Green Bay (10-2) ................ PR = 30
4. Indianapolis (10-2) ............ PR = 30
5. Pittsburgh (9-3) ................. PR = 28

6. Jacksonville (8-4) .............. PR = 26
7. Seattle (8-4) ...................... PR = 25
8. Tampa Bay (8-4) .............. PR = 25
9. New York Giants (8-4) ..... PR = 23
10. San Diego (7-5) ............... PR = 23

11. Tennessee (7-5) ............... PR = 22
12. Minnesota (6-6) ............. PR = 21
13. Cleveland (7-5) ................ PR = 21
14. Arizona (6-6) .................. PR = 20
15. Buffalo (6-6) ................... PR = 19

16. Philadelphia (5-7) .......... PR = 18
17. Washington (5-7) ........... PR = 18
18. Chicago (5-7) .................. PR = 17
19. Denver (5-7) .................... PR = 17
20. Detroit (6-6) .................. PR = 17

21. Carolina (5-7) ................ PR = 17
22. New Orleans (5-7) ........ PR = 17
23. Houston (5-7) ............... PR = 17
24. Baltimore (4-8) ............ PR = 16
25. Kansas City (4-8) ......... PR = 16

26. Cincinnati (4-8) ........... PR = 16
27. Oakland (4-8) ............. PR = 15
28. St. Louis (3-9) ............. PR = 13
29. NY Jets (3-9) .............. PR = 12
30. Atlanta (3-9) ................ PR = 12

31. San Francisco (3-9) .... PR = 11
32. Miami (0-12) .............. PR = 9