NFL Picks - Week 15

I was 14-2 in Week 14 picking winners (Las Vegas was 13-3), and I hit 2 of the 3 upsets I picked. I am 127-81 (61.1%) on the season.

My Chargers played well enough to beat Tennessee 23-17 in overtime. I predicted Chargers 21-17 over the Titans. The Bolts played poorly on offense for three quarters, then scored 20 points in the 4th quarter and overtime. LT had several long runs, but Rivers was only 21-40 with three turnovers. The defense played decent, especially in the second half, despite several key injuries. This week the Chargers stay home to face Detroit, who is 6-7 with 5 losses in a row. The Bolts are favored by 9.5. My prediction is that it will be a close game - I'll say Chargers 27-23 over the Lions due to all of the injuries.

Here are my week 15 picks of winners (Vegas favorites denoted by *, home team denoted with an H):

Denver (6-7) over Houston* (6-7) (H)
Cincinnati* (5-8) over San Francisco (3-10) (H)
San Diego* (8-5) (H) over Detroit (6-7)
New Orleans* (6-7) (H) over Arizona (6-7)
Tampa Bay* (8-5) (H) over Atlanta (3-10)
Baltimore* (4-9) over Miami (0-13) (H)
Buffalo (7-6) over Cleveland* (8-5) (H)
Green Bay* (11-2) over St. Louis (3-10) (H)
Jacksonville (9-4) over Pittsburgh* (9-4) (H)
New England* (13-0) (H) over NY Jets (3-10)
Seattle* (9-4) over Carolina (5-8) (H)
Tennessee* (7-6) over Kansas City (4-9) (H)
Indianapolis* (11-2) over Oakland (4-9) (H)
Dallas* (12-1) (H) over Philadelphia (5-8)
NY Giants* (9-4) (H) over Washington (6-7)
Minnesota* (7-6) (H) over Chicago (5-8)

I picked Denver (+3), Buffalo (+5.5) and Jacksonville (+5.5) as upsets this week. This is a critical week for Denver, Tennessee, Buffalo, Arizona, Minnesota, Detroit, New Orleans, and Washington as far as playoff spots go.

Here are my 32 team power ratings (my estimates based on won-lost record and point differential) after 13 games:

1. New England (13-0) ........... PR = 38
2. Dallas (12-1) ........................ PR = 34
3. Indianapolis (11-2) ............ PR = 32
4. Green Bay (11-2) ................ PR = 31
5. Pittsburgh (9-4) ................. PR = 27

6. Jacksonville (9-4) .............. PR = 27
7. Seattle (9-4) ...................... PR = 27
8. New York Giants (9-4) ..... PR = 25
9. Tampa Bay (8-5) .............. PR = 24
10. San Diego (8-5) ............... PR = 24

11. Cleveland (8-5) ................ PR = 23
12. Minnesota (7-6) ............. PR = 22
13. Tennessee (7-6) ............... PR = 21
14. Buffalo (7-6) ................... PR = 20
15. Arizona (6-7) .................. PR = 19

16. Washington (6-7) ........... PR = 19
17. New Orleans (6-7) ........ PR = 19
18. Houston (6-7) ............... PR = 19
19. Denver (6-7) .................... PR = 18
20. Detroit (6-7) .................. PR = 18

21. Philadelphia (5-8) .......... PR = 17
22. Cincinnati (5-8) ........... PR = 17
23. Chicago (5-8) .................. PR = 16
24. Carolina (5-8) ................ PR = 15
25. Baltimore (4-9) ............ PR = 14

26. Oakland (4-9) ............. PR = 14
27. Kansas City (4-9) ......... PR = 13
28. NY Jets (3-10) .............. PR = 12
29. St. Louis (3-10) ............. PR = 11
30. Atlanta (3-10) ................ PR = 11

31. San Francisco (3-10) .... PR = 10
32. Miami (0-13) .............. PR = 6