NFL Picks - Week 17

I was 9-7 in Week 15 picking winners (Las Vegas was 11-5), and I hit neither of the 2 upsets I picked. I am 145-95 (60.4%) on the season.

My Chargers played pretty well in beating Denver 23-3. I predicted Chargers 24-20 over the Broncos thinking that Jay Cutler would throw better than he did. It looks like the Chargers defense has it together - stuffing the run (except for QB scrambles) and defending the pass - the pass rush was good and coverage was decent. The Bolts played decent on offense for three quarters, running off to a 16-0 halftime lead. LT had several long runs in the first half, This week the Chargers travel to Oakland to face the Raiders (now 4-11) on Sunday afternoon. The Bolts are favored by 8 points. My prediction is that it will be a close game - I'll say Chargers 24-16 over the Raiders as the Chargers try to protect their key players for the playoffs, but still need to win to get the #3 AFC seed.

Here are my week 17 picks of winners (Vegas favorites denoted by *, home team denoted with an H):

New England* (15-0) over NY Giants (10-5) (H)
Philadelphia * (7-8) (H) over Buffalo (7-8)
Tampa Bay* (9-6) (H) over Carolina (6-9)
Miami (1-14) (H) over Cincinnati* (6-9)
Washington* (8-7) (H) over Dallas (13-2)
Green Bay* (12-3) (H) over Detroit (7-8)
Jacksonville (11-4) over Houston* (7-8) (H)
New Orleans* (7-8) over Chicago (6-9) (H)
Pittsburgh* (10-5) over Baltimore (4-11) (H)
Seattle (10-5) over Atlanta* (3-12) (H)
Cleveland* (9-6) (H) over San Francisco (4-11)
Tennessee* (9-6) over Indianapolis (13-2) (H)
Minnesota (8-7) over Denver* (6-9) (H)
Arizona* (7-8) (H) over St. Louis (3-12)
NY Jets* (3-12) (H) over Kansas City (4-11)
San Diego* (10-5) over Oakland (4-11) (H)

The Las Vegas odds this week are skewed by the playoff situation - Minnesota, Washington, New Orleans, Cleveland and Tennessee need to win their games. Seattle, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, Dallas, Green Bay, NY Giants, Pittsburgh and San Diego don't need to win their games, but would like to win with backup players without losing key players due to injuries. New England would like to win and be undefeated for the year.

I picked four games against the Vegas spread - Tampa Bay (+3), Miami (+2.5), Jacksonville (+6.5), and Seattle (+2.5). The Denver-Minnesota game is still off the board - by the time they play, Minnesota should know their fate.

Here are my 32 team power ratings (my estimates based on won-lost record and point differential) after 15 games:

1. New England (15-0) ........... PR = 38
2. Dallas (13-2) ........................ PR = 33
3. Indianapolis (13-2) ............ PR = 32
4. Green Bay (12-3) ................ PR = 30
5. Jacksonville (11-4) .............. PR = 29

6. Pittsburgh (10-5) ................. PR = 27
7. San Diego (10-5) ............... PR = 27
8. Seattle (10-5) ...................... PR = 26
9. Tampa Bay (9-6) .............. PR = 24
10. Cleveland (9-6) ................ PR = 24

11. Tennessee (9-6) ............... PR = 23
12. New York Giants (10-5) ..... PR = 23
13. Washington (8-7) ........... PR = 22
14. Minnesota (8-7) ............. PR = 22
15. Philadelphia (7-8) .......... PR = 20

16. New Orleans (7-8) ........ PR = 19
17. Houston (7-8) ............... PR = 19
18. Arizona (7-8) .................. PR = 19
19. Buffalo (7-8) ................... PR = 18
20. Cincinnati (6-9) ........... PR = 17

21. Chicago (6-9) .................. PR = 17
22. Detroit (7-8) .................. PR = 16
23. Denver (6-9) .................... PR = 15
24. Carolina (6-9) ................ PR = 15
25. San Francisco (5-10) .... PR = 13

26. NY Jets (3-12) ............... PR = 12
27. Oakland (4-11) ............... PR = 12
28. Kansas City (4-11) ......... PR = 12
29. Baltimore (4-11) ............ PR = 11
30. St. Louis (3-12) ............. PR = 10

31. Atlanta (3-12) ................ PR = 10
32. Miami (1-14) .................. PR = 8