NFL Picks - Week 16

I was 9-7 in Week 15 picking winners (Las Vegas was 10-6), and I hit only 1 of the 3 upsets I picked. I am 136-88 (60.7%) on the season.

My Chargers played very well in beat Detroit 51-14. I predicted Chargers 27-23 over the Lions on the basis of Bolt injuries and Detroit's back to the playoff wall. The Bolts played well on offense for three quarters, scoring on their first 7 possessions, running off to a 34-7 halftime lead. LT had several long runs in the first half, and Darren Sproles had over 100 yards in the second half. Philip Rivers was 14 of 21 with no turnovers, hitting key third down passes several times in the first half. The defense played well, especially in the first half, with five picks, despite several key injuries. This week the Chargers are home on Monday night to face Denver, who are 6-8 and is out of the playoffs. The Bolts are favored by 9.5 points. My prediction is that it will be a close game - I'll say Chargers 24-20 over the Broncos due to all of the Bolts injuries.

Here are my week 16 picks of winners (Vegas favorites denoted by *, home team denoted with an H):

Pittsburgh* (9-5) over St. Louis (3-11) (H)
Dallas* (12-2) over Carolina (6-8) (H)
Cleveland* (9-5) over Cincinnati (5-9) (H)
Green Bay* (12-2) over Chicago (5-9) (H)
Indianapolis* (12-2) (H) over Houston (7-7)
Kansas City (4-10) over Detroit* (6-8) (H)
New England* (14-0) (H) over Miami (1-13)
Buffalo (7-7) (H) over NY Giants* (9-5)
Jacksonville* (10-4) (H) over Oakland (4-10)
New Orleans* (7-7) (H) over Philadelphia (6-8)
Minnesota* (8-6) (H) over Washington (7-7)
Arizona* (6-8) (H) over Atlanta (3-11)
Seattle* (9-5) (H) over Baltimore (4-10)
Tennessee* (8-6) (H) over NY Jets (3-11)
Tampa Bay* (9-5) over San Francisco (4-10) (H)
San Diego* (9-5) (H) over Denver (6-8)

I picked Kansas City (+5) and Buffalo (+1) as the only upsets this week. This is a critical week for Tennessee, Buffalo, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Washington as far as playoff spots go.

Here are my 32 team power ratings (my estimates based on won-lost record and point differential) after 13 games:

1. New England (14-0) ........... PR = 38
2. Dallas (12-2) ........................ PR = 33
3. Indianapolis (12-2) ............ PR = 32
4. Green Bay (12-2) ................ PR = 32
5. Jacksonville (10-4) .............. PR = 28

6. Pittsburgh (9-5) ................. PR = 26
7. San Diego (9-5) ............... PR = 26
8. Tampa Bay (9-5) .............. PR = 25
9. Cleveland (9-5) ................ PR = 25
10. Minnesota (8-6) ............. PR = 24

11. Seattle (9-5) ...................... PR = 24
12. Tennessee (8-6) ............... PR = 22
13. New York Giants (9-5) ..... PR = 22
14. Buffalo (7-7) ................... PR = 20
15. Washington (7-7) ........... PR = 20

16. New Orleans (7-7) ........ PR = 20
17. Houston (7-7) ............... PR = 20
18. Philadelphia (6-8) .......... PR = 19
19. Arizona (6-8) .................. PR = 18
20. Denver (6-8) .................... PR = 17

21. Carolina (6-8) ................ PR = 16
22. Cincinnati (5-9) ........... PR = 16
23. Chicago (5-9) .................. PR = 15
24. Detroit (6-8) .................. PR = 14
25. Oakland (4-10) ............. PR = 13

26. Kansas City (4-10) ......... PR = 13
27. Baltimore (4-10) ............ PR = 12
28. San Francisco (4-10) .... PR = 12
29. NY Jets (3-11) .............. PR = 12
30. St. Louis (3-11) ............. PR = 10

31. Atlanta (3-11) ................ PR = 10
32. Miami (1-13) .............. PR = 8