Thursday, December 11, 2008

NFL Picks - Week 15

Week 14 of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 11-5 in week 14 picking winners (120-65-5 on the year), while Las Vegas was 12-4 picking winners in week 14 (137-66-5 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 14 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 11 December:

New Orleans (7-6) (+3) at Chicago (7-6): Chicago by 2.5

SUNDAY, 14 December:

San Diego (5-8) (-5.5) at Kansas City (2-11): San Diego by 6
Green Bay (5-8) (-2.5) at Jacksonville (4-9): Green Bay by 0.5
Detroit (0-13) (+17) at Indianapolis (9-4): Indianapolis by 25
Washington (7-6) (-7) at Cincinnati (1-11-1): Washington by 11
Tampa Bay (9-4) (+3) at Atlanta (8-5): Atlanta by 1
San Francisco (5-8) (+7.5) at Miami (8-5): Miami by 10
Seattle (2-11) (+3) at St. Louis (2-11): St. Louis by 1
Buffalo (6-7) (+8) at New York Jets (8-5): New York Jets by 8
Tennessee (12-1) (-3) at Houston (6-7): Tennessee by 12
Pittsburgh (10-3) (+2) at Baltimore (9-4): Baltimore by 1
Denver (8-5) (+7.5) at Carolina (10-3): Carolina by 8.5
Minnesota (8-5) (off) at Arizona (8-5): Arizona by 3.5
New England (8-5) (off) at Oakland (3-10): New England by 10
New York Giants (11-2) (+3) at Dallas (8-5): New York Giants by 5

MONDAY, 15 December:

Cleveland (4-9) (+14) at Philadelphia (7-5-1): Philadelphia by 12.5

I think the highest potential for upsets (versus Las Vegas) are the Giants over Dallas, Pittsburgh over Baltimore, and Tampa Bay over Atlanta. Teams in a must-win situation are San Diego, New England, Miami, NY Jets, Baltimore, Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Washington.

Here are my NFL power ratings after 14 weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (11-1) -- 33.8
2. New York Giants (11-2) -- 31.7
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) -- 29.0
4. Carolina Panthers (10-3) -- 28.3
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-4) -- 27.2

6. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-4) -- 26.2
7. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) -- 25.9
8. New York Jets (8-5) -- 24.2
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-5) -- 24.0
10. Arizona Cardinals (8-5) -- 23.9

11. Dallas Cowboys (8-5) -- 23.6
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-5) -- 23.6
13. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1) -- 23.5
14. New England Patriots (8-5) -- 23.5
15. Miami Dolphins (8-5) -- 23.2

16. Denver Broncos (8-5) - 22.6
17. New Orleans Saints (7-6) -- 21.8
18. Chicago Bears (7-6) -- 21.5
19. Washington Redskins (7-6) -- 20.5
20. Buffalo Bills (6-7) -- 19.1

21. Houston Texans (6-7) -- 18.5
22. San Diego Chargers (5-8) -- 17.8
23. Green Bay Packers (5-8) -- 17.7
24. San Francisco 49ers (5-8) -- 16.2
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) -- 14.2

26. Cleveland Browns (4-9) -- 14.0
27. Oakland Raiders (3-10) -- 10.7
28. Seattle Seahawks (2-11) -- 8.9
29. Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) -- 8.5
30. St. Louis Rams (2-11) -- 6.7

31. Cincinnati Bengals (1-11-1) -- 6.7
32. Detroit Lions (0-13) -- 3.6

I predicted the Chargers would barely beat the Raiders, 20-17, and the Bolts won 34-7 - not allowing a defensive touchdown and hitting on several big offensive plays. The running game was better, but the line is not run blocking or pass blocking well. One more loss and the Bolts won't make the playoffs (I said that the last three weeks too). Now the Bolts go on the road to Arrowhead to play the Kansas City Chiefs. This game concerns me because the Bolts don't play well in KC. However, this is a must-win game for the Chargers. My Power Ratings say Chargers by 6, I think they will win 27-21.

1 comment:

Mberenis said...

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