NFL Picks - Wild Card Week

The NFL regular season is history -- I was 8-8 in week 16 picking winners (137-80-5 on the year), while Las Vegas was 8-8 picking winners in week 16 (154-79-7 on the year).

I was out of town for Week 17, so I didn't make any picks, and it really doesn't matter anyway!

Here are my picks for Wild Card Week (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

SATURDAY, 3 January:

Philadelphia (9-6-1) (-3) at Minnesota (10-6): Minnesota by 2.5
Indianapolis (12-4) (-1) at San Diego (8-8): Indianapolis by 5

SUNDAY, 4 January:

Baltimore (11-5) (-3) at Miami (11-5): Miami by 1
Atlanta (11-5) (-1) at Arizona (9-7): Atlanta by 2

Here are my NFL power ratings after the regular season:

1. Tennessee Titans (13-3) -- 32.2
2. New York Giants (12-4) -- 30.1
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) -- 29.9
4. Carolina Panthers (12-4) -- 29.3
5. Indianapolis Colts (12-4) -- 29.2

6. Baltimore Ravens (11-5) -- 28.2
7. New England Patriots (11-5) -- 27.6
8. Atlanta Falcons (11-5) -- 27.0
9. Miami Dolphins (11-5) -- 26.4
10. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) -- 25.0

11. Minnesota Vikings (10-6) -- 24.7
12. New York Jets (9-7) -- 22.8
13. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-7) -- 22.6
14. Chicago Bears (9-7) -- 22.4
15. Arizona Cardinals (9-7) -- 22.1

16. Dallas Cowboys (9-7) -- 22.0
17. San Diego Chargers (8-8) -- 21.4
18. New Orleans Saints (8-8) -- 21.1
19. Houston Texans (8-8) -- 19.6
20. Washington Redskins (8-8) -- 19.5

21. Denver Broncos (8-8) - 18.8
22. Buffalo Bills (7-9) -- 17.9
23. San Francisco 49ers (7-9) -- 17.4
24. Green Bay Packers (6-10) -- 15.4
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) -- 13.0

26. Oakland Raiders (5-11) -- 12.1
27. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1) -- 10.5
28. Seattle Seahawks (4-12) -- 10.5
29. Cleveland Browns (4-12) -- 10.2
30. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14) -- 5.7

31. St. Louis Rams (2-14) -- 4.4
32. Detroit Lions (0-16) -- 0.1

My Chargers pulled off the impossible - making the playoffs by winning their last 4, and having Denver lose their last three. However, Tomlinson and Gates were hurt in the last game, and may not be at full strength for this week. The Colts have a 9 game winning streak, the Chargers a 4 game winning streak. The Colts beat the Bolts 23-21 on a last-second field goal earlier in the season. My heart says Bolts...my head says Colts. I think the Colts win this one 38-34.

NFL Picks - Week 16

Week 15 of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 9-7 in week 15 picking winners (129-72-5 on the year), while Las Vegas was 9-5-2 picking winners in week 15 (146-71-7 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 16 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 18 December:

Indianapolis (10-4) (-6.5) at Jacksonville (5-9): Indianapolis by 10.5

SATURDAY, 20 December:

Baltimore (9-5) (+5) at Dallas (9-5): Dallas by 1

SUNDAY, 21 December:

San Diego (6-8) (+3) at Tampa Bay (9-5): Tampa Bay by 9
Pittsburgh (10-4) (+1) at Tennessee (12-2): Tennessee by 4.5
Miami (9-5) (-4) at Kansas City (2-12): Miami by 13.5
Arizona (8-6) (+8) at New England (9-5): New England by 5.5
Cincinnati (2-11-1) (+3) at Cleveland (4-10): Cleveland by 8
Philadelphia (8-5-1) (-5) at Washington (7-7): Philadelphia by 2.5
San Francisco (5-9) (-5.5) at St. Louis (2-12): San Francisco by 6.5
Carolina (11-3) (+3) at New York Giants (11-3): New York Giants by 4
Atlanta (9-5) (+3) at Minnesota (9-5): Minnesota by 3
New Orleans (7-7) (-6.5) at Detroit (0-14): New Orleans by 15
New York Jets (9-5) (-4.5) at Seattle (3-11): New York Jets by 13
Houston (7-7) (-7) at Oakland (3-11): Houston by 7
Buffalo (6-8) (+7) at Denver (8-6): Denver by 6.5

MONDAY, December 22:

Green Bay (5-9) (+4.5) at Chicago (8-6): Chicago by 9

I think the highest potential for upsets (versus Las Vegas) are the Bengals over the Browns, the Chargers over the Bucs, and Pittsburgh over Tennessee. Teams in a must-win situation are San Diego, New England, Miami, NY Jets, Baltimore, Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta.

Here are my NFL power ratings after 15 weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (12-2) -- 32.6
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) -- 31.0
3. New York Giants (11-3) -- 30.3
4. Carolina Panthers (11-3) -- 29.4
5. Indianapolis Colts (10-4) -- 26.9

6. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) -- 26.0
7. New York Jets (9-5) -- 25.2
8. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-5) -- 25.1
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-5) -- 25.0
10. Minnesota Vikings (9-5) -- 24.9

11. Dallas Cowboys (9-5) -- 24.8
12. New England Patriots (9-5) -- 24.8
13. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1) -- 24.7
14. Miami Dolphins (9-5) -- 24.2
15. Arizona Cardinals (8-6) -- 22.5

16. Chicago Bears (8-6) -- 22.5
17. Denver Broncos (8-6) - 21.3
18. New Orleans Saints (7-7) -- 20.7
19. Houston Texans (7-7) -- 19.6
20. Washington Redskins (7-7) -- 19.4

21. San Diego Chargers (6-8) -- 18.8
22. Buffalo Bills (6-8) -- 18.0
23. Green Bay Packers (5-9) -- 16.6
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) -- 15.3
25. San Francisco 49ers (5-9) -- 15.2

26. Cleveland Browns (4-10) -- 12.7
27. Seattle Seahawks (3-11) -- 10.3
28. Oakland Raiders (3-11) -- 9.4
29. Cincinnati Bengals (2-11-1) -- 7.7
30. Kansas City Chiefs (2-12) -- 7.6

31. St. Louis Rams (2-12) -- 5.9
32. Detroit Lions (0-14) -- 2.4

I predicted the Chargers would barely beat the Chiefs 27-21, and the Bolts won 22-21, after playing a poor first half (behind 14-3 at the half, and 21-3 in the 3rd quarter). The running game was terrible because the line just cannot run block effectively, and the pass blocking is suspect too. Dielman got kicked out, and Hardwick got a concussion. One more loss and the Bolts won't make the playoffs (I said that the last four weeks too). Now the Bolts go on the road to Tampa Bay to play the Bucs. This is a must-win game for the Chargers and the Bucs. My Power Ratings say Tampa Bay by 9.5, but I think the Bolts will win 20-17 (hope springs eternal...).

Go Chargers!!

The California Highway Patrol is cracking down on speeders heading towards the city of San Diego. For the first offense, they give you two Chargers tickets. If you get stopped a second time, they make you use them.

Q. What do you call 47 millionaires sitting around a TV watching the Super Bowl?
A. The Chargers.

Q. What do the Chargers and Billy Graham have in common?
A. They both can make 70,000 people stand up and yell 'Jesus Christ.'

Q. How do you keep a Charger out of your yard?
A. Put up a goal post.

Q. What do you call a Charger with a Super Bowl ring?
A. A thief.

Q. What's the difference between the Chargers and a dollar Bill?
A. You can still get four quarters out of a dollar bill.

Q. How many Chargers does it take to win a Super Bowl?
A. Nobody knows and we may never find out!

Q. What do the Chargers and a possum have in common?
A. Both play dead at home and get killed on the road!

Q Did you hear that the Chargers are moving to the Philippine islands?
A they’ll be called the Manila Folders.

NFL Picks - Week 15

Week 14 of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 11-5 in week 14 picking winners (120-65-5 on the year), while Las Vegas was 12-4 picking winners in week 14 (137-66-5 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 14 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 11 December:

New Orleans (7-6) (+3) at Chicago (7-6): Chicago by 2.5

SUNDAY, 14 December:

San Diego (5-8) (-5.5) at Kansas City (2-11): San Diego by 6
Green Bay (5-8) (-2.5) at Jacksonville (4-9): Green Bay by 0.5
Detroit (0-13) (+17) at Indianapolis (9-4): Indianapolis by 25
Washington (7-6) (-7) at Cincinnati (1-11-1): Washington by 11
Tampa Bay (9-4) (+3) at Atlanta (8-5): Atlanta by 1
San Francisco (5-8) (+7.5) at Miami (8-5): Miami by 10
Seattle (2-11) (+3) at St. Louis (2-11): St. Louis by 1
Buffalo (6-7) (+8) at New York Jets (8-5): New York Jets by 8
Tennessee (12-1) (-3) at Houston (6-7): Tennessee by 12
Pittsburgh (10-3) (+2) at Baltimore (9-4): Baltimore by 1
Denver (8-5) (+7.5) at Carolina (10-3): Carolina by 8.5
Minnesota (8-5) (off) at Arizona (8-5): Arizona by 3.5
New England (8-5) (off) at Oakland (3-10): New England by 10
New York Giants (11-2) (+3) at Dallas (8-5): New York Giants by 5

MONDAY, 15 December:

Cleveland (4-9) (+14) at Philadelphia (7-5-1): Philadelphia by 12.5

I think the highest potential for upsets (versus Las Vegas) are the Giants over Dallas, Pittsburgh over Baltimore, and Tampa Bay over Atlanta. Teams in a must-win situation are San Diego, New England, Miami, NY Jets, Baltimore, Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Washington.

Here are my NFL power ratings after 14 weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (11-1) -- 33.8
2. New York Giants (11-2) -- 31.7
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) -- 29.0
4. Carolina Panthers (10-3) -- 28.3
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-4) -- 27.2

6. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-4) -- 26.2
7. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) -- 25.9
8. New York Jets (8-5) -- 24.2
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-5) -- 24.0
10. Arizona Cardinals (8-5) -- 23.9

11. Dallas Cowboys (8-5) -- 23.6
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-5) -- 23.6
13. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1) -- 23.5
14. New England Patriots (8-5) -- 23.5
15. Miami Dolphins (8-5) -- 23.2

16. Denver Broncos (8-5) - 22.6
17. New Orleans Saints (7-6) -- 21.8
18. Chicago Bears (7-6) -- 21.5
19. Washington Redskins (7-6) -- 20.5
20. Buffalo Bills (6-7) -- 19.1

21. Houston Texans (6-7) -- 18.5
22. San Diego Chargers (5-8) -- 17.8
23. Green Bay Packers (5-8) -- 17.7
24. San Francisco 49ers (5-8) -- 16.2
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) -- 14.2

26. Cleveland Browns (4-9) -- 14.0
27. Oakland Raiders (3-10) -- 10.7
28. Seattle Seahawks (2-11) -- 8.9
29. Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) -- 8.5
30. St. Louis Rams (2-11) -- 6.7

31. Cincinnati Bengals (1-11-1) -- 6.7
32. Detroit Lions (0-13) -- 3.6

I predicted the Chargers would barely beat the Raiders, 20-17, and the Bolts won 34-7 - not allowing a defensive touchdown and hitting on several big offensive plays. The running game was better, but the line is not run blocking or pass blocking well. One more loss and the Bolts won't make the playoffs (I said that the last three weeks too). Now the Bolts go on the road to Arrowhead to play the Kansas City Chiefs. This game concerns me because the Bolts don't play well in KC. However, this is a must-win game for the Chargers. My Power Ratings say Chargers by 6, I think they will win 27-21.

NFL Picks - Week 14

Week 13 of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 11-3-2 in week 13 picking winners (109-64-5 on the year), while Las Vegas was 11-5 picking winners in week 13 (125-62-5 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 14 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 4 December:

Oakland (3-9) (+9) at San Diego (4-8): San Diego by 7

SUNDAY, 7 December:

Cincinnati (1-10-1) (+13.5) at Indianapolis: Indianapolis by 19
Jacksonville (4-8) (+6.5) at Chicago (6-6): Chicago by 8
Houston (5-7) (+6) at Green Bay (5-7): Green Bay by 4
Cleveland (4-8) (+13.5) at Tennessee (11-1): Tennessee by 20
Minnesota (7-5) (-7) at Detroit (0-12): Minnesota by 14
Washington (7-5) (+5) at Baltimore (8-4): Baltimore by 7
Philadelphia (6-5-1) (+7) at New York Giants (11-1): New York Giants by 12.5
Atlanta (8-4) (+3) at New Orleans (6-6): Atlanta by 1.5
New York Jets (8-4) (-4) at San Francisco (4-8): New York Jets by 7.5
Miami (7-5) (+1) vs. Buffalo (6-6) at Toronto: Buffalo by 1.5
Kansas City (2-10) (+9) at Denver (7-5): Denver by 15
St. Louis (2-10) (+14) at Arizona (7-5): Arizona by 18
Dallas (8-4) (+3) at Pittsburgh (9-3): Pittsburgh by 6.5
New England (7-5) (-5.5) at Seattle (2-10): New England by 14

MONDAY, 8 December:

Tampa Bay (9-3) (+3) at Carolina (9-3): Carolina by 2.5

I think the highest potential for upsets (versus Las Vegas) are Dallas over Pittsburgh, Miami over Buffalo, and Tampa Bay over Carolina. Teams in a must-win situation are Denver, San Diego, New England, Miami, Baltimore, Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Washington.

Here are my NFL power ratings after 13 weeks:

1. New York Giants (11-1) -- 33.0
2. Tennessee Titans (10-1) -- 32.8
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) -- 28.1
4. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-3) -- 27.7
5. Carolina Panthers (9-3) -- 27.1

6. Baltimore Ravens (8-4) -- 26.1
7. New York Jets (8-4) -- 25.5
8. Atlanta Falcons (8-4) -- 25.0
9. Dallas Cowboys (8-4) -- 24.7
10. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) -- 24.1

11. Philadelphia Eagles (6-5-1) -- 23.5
12. Minnesota Vikings (7-5) -- 22.6
13. Arizona Cardinals (7-5) -- 22.5
14. New England Patriots (7-5) -- 22.3
15. Miami Dolphins (7-5) -- 21.9

16. Washington Redskins (7-5) -- 21.7
17. Denver Broncos (7-5) - 21.4
18. New Orleans Saints (6-6) -- 20.7
19. Buffalo Bills (6-6) -- 20.4
20. Chicago Bears (6-6) -- 20.3

21. Green Bay Packers (5-7) -- 18.8
22. Houston Texans (5-7) -- 17.2
23. San Diego Chargers (4-8) -- 16.3
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) -- 15.4
25. Cleveland Browns (4-8) -- 15.3

26. San Francisco 49ers (4-8) -- 14.9
27. Oakland Raiders (3-9) -- 12.1
28. Seattle Seahawks (2-10) -- 11.1
29. Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) -- 9.4
30. St. Louis Rams (2-10) -- 7.8

31. Cincinnati Bengals (1-10-1) -- 7.7
32. Detroit Lions (0-12) -- 6.0

I predicted the Falcons win over the Chargers, even though my Power Ratings said the Chargers would win. My Chargers played terrible on offense, unable to run effectively, and unable to pass downfield. The defense couldn't stop the Falcons at critical times. One more loss and the Bolts probably don't make the playoffs (I said that the last two weeks too). Now the Raiders come to town, and this game concerns me. The Chargers beat them 28-18 in Oakland earlier, but had to come from 15-0 behind. My Power Ratings say Chargers by all 7, I think they will win 20-17, probably in the last minute.

NFL Picks - Week 13

Week 12 of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 9-6-1 in week 12 picking winners (98-61 -3 on the year), while Las Vegas was 10-6 picking winners in week 12 (114-57-5 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 13 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 27 November:

Tennessee (10-1) (-11) at Detroit (0-11): Tennessee by 22
Seattle (2-9) (+12.5) at Dallas (7-4): Dallas by 15
Arizona (7-4) (+3) at Philadelphia (5-5-1): even

SUNDAY, 30 November:

Denver (6-5) (+7.5) at New York Jets (8-3): New York Jets by 10
San Francisco (3-8) (+7) at Buffalo (6-5): Buffalo by 10
New Orleans (6-5) (+3.5) at Tampa Bay (8-3): Tampa Bay by 8
Carolina (7-4) (+3) at Green Bay (5-6): Carolina by 3
New York Giants (10-1) (-3.5) at Washington (7-4): New York Giants by 6
Miami (6-5) (-6) at St. Louis (2-9): Miami by 10
Baltimore (7-4) (-7) at Cincinnati (1-9-1): Baltimore by 13
Indianapolis (7-4) (-4.5) at Cleveland (4-7): Indianapolis by 4
Pittsburgh (8-3) (+1) at New England (7-4): even
Kansas City (1-10) (+3) at Oakland (3-8): Oakland by 8
Atlanta (7-4) (+5) at San Diego (4-7): Atlanta by 3
Chicago (6-5) (+3) at Minnesota (6-5): Minnesota by 3

MONDAY, 1 December:

Jacksonville (4-7) (+3.5) at Houston (4-7): Houston by 2

I think the highest potential for upsets (versus Las Vegas) are New Orleans over Tampa Bay, Chicago over Minnesota, and Pittsburgh over New England. Teams in a must-win situation are San Diego, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Miami.

Here are my NFL power ratings after 12 weeks:

1. New York Giants (10-1) -- 32
2. Tennessee Titans (10-1) -- 31
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) -- 27
4. Tampa Bay Bucs (8-3) -- 27
5. New York Jets (8-3) -- 27

6. Carolina Panthers (8-3) -- 26
7. Baltimore Ravens (7-4) -- 25
8. Arizona Cardinals (7-4) -- 24
9. Atlanta Falcons (7-4) -- 24
10. New England Patriots (7-4) -- 24

11. Washington Redskins (7-4) -- 23
12. Dallas Cowboys (7-4) -- 23
13. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) -- 23
14. New Orleans Saints (6-5) -- 22
15. Miami Dolphins (6-5) -- 21

16. Minnesota Vikings (6-5) -- 21
17. Philadelphia Eagles (5-5-1) -- 21
18. Buffalo Bills (6-5) -- 21
19. Chicago Bears (6-5) -- 21
20. Green Bay Packers (5-6) -- 20

21. Denver Broncos (6-5) - 20
22. San Diego Chargers (4-7) -- 18
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) -- 17
24. Cleveland Browns (4-7) -- 16
25. Houston Texans (4-7) -- 16

26. San Francisco 49ers (3-8) -- 14
27. Oakland Raiders (3-8) -- 13
28. Seattle Seahawks (2-9) -- 11
29. Cincinnati Bengals (1-9-1) -- 9
30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) -- 8

31. St. Louis Rams (2-9) -- 8
32. Detroit Lions (0-11) -- 6

I predicted the Colts win over the Chargers exactly, 23-20. My Chargers played better on offense, but made critical mistakes. The defense couldn't stop the last Colts drive. The coach made a game management error too. One more loss and the Bolts probably don't make the playoffs (I said that last week too). Now the Falcons come to town with ex-Charger Michael Turner. I call it Falcons 27, Chargers 24.

NFL Picks - Week 12

Week 11 of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 10-4-2 in week 11 picking winners (89-55 -2 on the year), while Las Vegas was 11-4-1 picking winners in week 10 (104-51-5 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 12 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 13 November

Cincinnati (1-8-1) (+11.5) at Pittsburgh (7-3): Pittsburgh by 22

SUNDAY, 16 November:

Houston (3-7) (+3) at Cleveland (4-6): Cleveland by 6
Buffalo (5-5) (-3) at Kansas City (1-9): Buffalo by 10
New York Jets (7-3) (+5) at Tennessee (10-0): Tennessee by 11
New England (6-4) (+2) at Miami (6-4): Miami by 2
San Francisco (3-7) (+10.5) at Dallas (6-4): Dallas by 11
Tampa Bay (7-3) (-8.5) at Detroit (0-10): Tampa Bay by 20
Philadelphia (5-4-1) (+2) at Baltimore (6-4): Baltimore by 3
Chicago (5-5) (-8.5) at St. Louis (2-8): Chicago by 11
Minnesota (5-5) (+2.5) at Jacksonville (4-6): Jacksonville by 1
Carolina (8-2) (+1) at Atlanta (6-4): Carolina by 2
Oakland (2-8) (+10) at Denver (6-4): Denver by 9
Washington (6-4) (-3.5) at Seattle (2-8): Washington by 8
New York Giants (9-1) (-3.5) at Arizona (7-3): New York Giants by 3
Indianapolis (6-4) (+2.5) at San Diego (4-6): even

MONDAY, 17 November:

Green Bay (5-5) (+2.5) at New Orleans (5-5): New Orleans by 2

I think the highest potential for upsets (versus Las Vegas) are Indianapolis over San Diego, Carolina over Atlanta, and Kansas City over Buffalo.

Here are my NFL power ratings after eleven weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (10-0) -- 35
2. New York Giants (9-1) -- 33
3. Carolina Panthers (8-2) -- 29
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) -- 27
5. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-3) -- 27

6. New York Jets (7-3) -- 27
7. Arizona Cardinals (7-3) -- 27
8. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4-1) -- 24
9. Atlanta Falcons (6-4) -- 24
10. Baltimore Ravens (6-4) -- 24

11. New England Patriots (6-4) -- 23
12. Washington Redskins (6-4) -- 22
13. Dallas Cowboys (6-4) -- 22
14. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) -- 22
15. Miami Dolphins (6-4) -- 22

16. Green Bay Packers (5-5) -- 22
17. New Orleans Saints (5-5) -- 21
18. Denver Broncos (6-4) - 21
19. Minnesota Vikings (5-5) -- 20
20. Buffalo Bills (5-5) -- 20

21. Chicago Bears (5-5) -- 20
22. San Diego Chargers (4-6) -- 19
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6) -- 18
24. Cleveland Browns (4-6) -- 17
25. Houston Texans (3-7) -- 14

26. San Francisco 49ers (3-7) -- 14
27. Seattle Seahawks (2-8) -- 11
28. Oakland Raiders (2-8) -- 9
29. Cincinnati Bengals (1-8-1) -- 8
30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) -- 7

31. St. Louis Rams (2-8) -- 6
32. Detroit Lions (0-10) -- 4

My Chargers played better on defense, but the offense played poorly in the 11-10 loss to Pittsburgh (note it would have been 18-10 except for an official's error). One more loss and the Bolts probably don't make the playoffs. Now the Colts come to town - they've won two in a row while the Chargers have struggled to even win at home. I call it Colts 23, Chargers 20.

NFL Picks - Week 11

The tenth week of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 12-2 in week 10 picking winners (79-51 on the year), while Las Vegas was 8-3-3 picking winners in week 10 (93-47-4 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 11 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-point edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 13 November

New York Jets (6-3) (+3) at New England (6-3): New England by 1

SUNDAY, 16 November:

San Diego (4-5) (+4.5) at Pittsburgh (6-3): Pittsburgh by 8
Denver (5-4) (+5.5) at Atlanta (6-3): Atlanta by 8
Oakland (2-7) (+10.5) at Miami (5-4): Miami by 15
Baltimore (6-3) (+6.5) at New York Giants (8-1): New York Giants by 9
Houston (3-6) (+8.5) at Indianapolis (5-4): Indianapolis by 9
Tennessee (9-0) (-3) at Jacksonville (4-5): Tennessee by 18
Chicago (5-4) (off) at Green Bay (4-5): even
Philadelphia (5-4) (-9) at Cincinnati (1-8): Philadelphia by 15
New Orleans (4-5) (-4.5) at Kansas City (1-8): New Orleans by 9
Detroit (0-9) (+14) at Carolina (7-2): Carolina by 26
Minnesota (5-4) (+4) at Tampa Bay (6-3): Tampa Bay by 8
St. Louis (2-7) (+6.5) at San Francisco (2-7): San Francisco by 8
Arizona (6-3) (-3) at Seattle (2-7): Arizona by 11
Dallas (5-4) (-2) at Washington (6-3): Washington by 5

MONDAY, 17 November:

Cleveland (3-6) (+4.5) at Buffalo (5-4): Buffalo by 8

I think the highest potential for upsets are Kansas City over New Orleans, Cleveland over Buffalo, and Dallas over Washington.

Here are my NFL power ratings after ten weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (9-0) -- 34
2. New York Giants (8-1) -- 32
3. Carolina Panthers (7-2) -- 28
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) -- 26
5. Tampa Bay Bucs (6-3) -- 26

6. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) -- 26
7. New York Jets (6-3) -- 26
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) -- 26
9. Philadelphia Eagles (6-3) -- 25
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-3) -- 25

11. New England Patriots (6-3) -- 24
12. Chicago Bears (5-4) -- 23
13. Washington Redskins (6-3) -- 23
14. Buffalo Bills (5-4) -- 21
15. Dallas Cowboys (5-4) -- 21

16. San Diego Chargers (4-5) -- 21
17. Indianapolis Colts (5-4) -- 21
18. Minnesota Vikings (5-4) -- 21
19. Miami Dolphins (5-4) -- 21
20. Green Bay Packers (4-5) -- 20

21. New Orleans Saints (4-5) -- 20
22. Denver Broncos (5-4) - 20
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) -- 19
24. Cleveland Browns (3-6) -- 16
25. Houston Texans (3-6) -- 15

26. Seattle Seahawks (2-7) -- 12
27. San Francisco 49ers (2-7) -- 12
28. Oakland Raiders (2-7) -- 9
29. Kansas City Chiefs (1-8) -- 8
30. St. Louis Rams (2-7) -- 7

31. Cincinnati Bengals (1-8) -- 7
32. Detroit Lions (0-9) -- 5

My Chargers needed a break to beat the Chiefs 20-19 - the Chiefs went for two points in the last minute, and lost it. The Chargers run offense was poor, and the defense was porous. They go up against the 6-3 Steelers, who are smarting from a close loss to the Colts. I think the Steelers will run the ball well, stuff the Chargers run and pass. I'll call it Steelers 20, Chargers 9.

NFL Picks - Week 10

The eighth and ninth weeks of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 7-7 in week 8 picking winners (67-49 on the year), while Las Vegas was 7-7 picking winners in week 8 and 9-5 in week 9 (85-44-1 on the year). I didn't make picks in week 9 due to my vacation.

Here are my picks for Week 10 (solely based on my Power Ratings with a 3-popint edge for home field - Las Vegas odds in () ):

THURSDAY, 6 November

Denver (4-4) (+3) at Cleveland (3-5): Cleveland by 2

SUNDAY, 9 November:

Kansas City (1-7) (+15.5) at San Diego (3-5): San Diego by 14
Jacksonville (3-5) (-6) at Detroit (0-8): Jacksonville by 8
Tennessee (8-0) (off) at Chicago (5-3): Tennessee by 6
Buffalo (5-3) (+4.5) at New England (5-3): New England by 4
New Orleans (4-4) (pick) at Atlanta (5-3): Atlanta by 5
St. Louis (2-6) (+8) at New York Jets (5-3): New York Jets by 16
Seattle (2-6) (+9) at Miami (4-4):Miami by 10
Green Bay (4-4) (+2.5) at Minnesota (4-4): Minnesota by 1
Carolina (6-2) (-8.5) at Oakland (2-6): Carolina by 14
Indianapolis (4-4) (off) at Pittsburgh (6-2): Pittsburgh by 11
New York Giants (7-1) (+3) at Philadelphia (5-3): New York Giants by 3
Baltimore (5-3) (+1) at Houston (3-5): Baltimore by 3

MONDAY, 10 November:

San Francisco (2-6) (+9.5) at Arizona (5-3): Arizona by 16

BYES: Cincinnati, Washington, Dallas, Tampa Bay

Here are my NFL power ratings after nine weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (8-0) -- 34
2. New York Giants (7-1) -- 32
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) -- 28
4. Carolina Panthers (6-2) -- 27
5. Tampa Bay Bucs (6-3) -- 26

6. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) -- 26
7. Arizona Cardinals (5-3) -- 25
8. Chicago Bears (5-3) -- 25
9. Washington Redskins (6-3) -- 23
10. Atlanta Falcons (5-3) -- 23

11. New England Patriots (5-3) -- 23
12. Baltimore Ravens (5-3) -- 23
13. New York Jets (5-3) -- 23
14. Buffalo Bills (5-3) -- 22
15. Green Bay Packers (4-4) -- 22

16. New Orleans Saints (4-4) -- 21
17. Dallas Cowboys (5-4) -- 21
18. San Diego Chargers (3-5) -- 20
19. Indianapolis Colts (4-4) -- 20
20. Minnesota Vikings (4-4) -- 20


21. Miami Dolphins (4-4) -- 20
22. Denver Broncos (4-4) - 18
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) -- 17
24. Cleveland Browns (3-5) -- 17
25. Houston Texans (3-5) -- 17

26. Seattle Seahawks (2-6) -- 13
27. San Francisco 49ers (2-6) -- 12
28. Oakland Raiders (2-6) -- 10
29. St. Louis Rams (2-6) -- 10
30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) -- 9

31. Cincinnati Bengals (1-8) -- 9
32. Detroit Lions (0-8) -- 6

My Chargers came up short against New Orleans in week 8 - critical turnovers and not enough defense. The latter cost Ted Cottrell his coordinator job. After the bye week, has Ron Rivera improved the defensive schemes enough for the defense to actually stop somebody once in awhile? We'll see. I think the defense will bei mproved - I'll call it Chargers 41, Chiefs 23.

NFL Picks - Week 8

The seventh week of the NFL regular season is history -- I was 8-6 picking winners (60-42 on the year), while Las Vegas was 9-5 picking winners (69-32-1 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 8 (solely based on my Power Ratings - Las Vegas odds in () ):

SUNDAY, 26 October:

San Diego (3-4) (-3) and New Orleans (3-4) in London: Chargers by 1
Buffalo (5-1) (-1.5) at Miami (2-4): Buffalo by 6
Washington (5-2) (-7.5) at Detroit (0-6): Washington by 11
Tampa Bay (5-2) (off) at Dallas (4-3): Tampa Bay by 1
Oakland (2-4) (+7) at Baltimore (4-2): Baltimore by 10
Kansas City (1-5) (+12.5) at New York Jets (3-3): New York Jets by 12
St. Louis (2-4) (+off) at New England (4-2): New England by 11
Arizona (4-2) (+4.5) at Carolina (5-2): Carolina by 5
Atlanta (4-2) (+8.5) at Philadelphia (3-3): Philadelphia by 2
Cincinnati (0-7) (+10) at Houston (2-4): Houston by 11
Cleveland (2-4) (+6.5) at Jacksonville (3-3): Jacksonville by 6
New York Giants (5-1) (-2.5) at Pittsburgh (5-1): Pittsburgh by 1
Seattle (1-5) (+3) at San Francisco (2-5): San Francisco by 6

MONDAY, 27 October:

Indianapolis (3-3) (+4) at Tennessee (6-0): Tennessee by 14

BYES: Denver, Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota.

The Chargers didn't score enough on offense, or get close to the QB in the 23-14 loss to the Bills. This week, the Chargers take on the Saints in London - it's a road trip for both teams. This is a crucial game for both teams - whoever loses is 3-5 and probably misses the playoffs. I see it Chargers 31, Saints 30.

t the risk of being laughed at, here are my NFL power ratings after seven weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (6-0) -- 31
2. New York Giants (5-1) -- 30
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1) -- 28
4. Buffalo Bills (5-1) -- 27
5. Tampa Bay Bucs (5-2) -- 26

6. Carolina Panthers (5-2) -- 25
7. Washington Redskins (5-2) -- 24
8. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) -- 23
9. Atlanta Falcons (4-2) -- 22
10. Dallas Cowboys (4-3) -- 22

11. Chicago Bears (4-3) -- 22
12. New England Patriots (4-2) -- 22
13. Green Bay Packers (4-3) -- 21
14. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) -- 21
15. Baltimore Ravens (3-3) -- 21

16. San Diego Chargers (3-4) -- 21
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) -- 20
18. Indianapolis Colts (3-3) -- 20
19. New Orleans Saints (3-4) -- 20
20. Denver Broncos (4-3) - 20

21. New York Jets (3-3) -- 19
22. Minnesota Vikings (3-4) -- 18
23. Miami Dolphins (2-4) -- 18
24. Cleveland Browns (2-4) -- 17
25. Houston Texans (2-4) -- 17

26. Oakland Raiders (2-4) -- 14
27. St. Louis Rams (2-4) -- 14
28. San Francisco 49ers (2-5) -- 13
29. Seattle Seahawks (1-5) -- 10
30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) -- 9

31. Cincinnati Bengals (0-6) -- 9
32. Detroit Lions (0-6) -- 8

NFL Picks - Week 7

The sixth week of the NFL regular season was terrible for me -- I was 6-8 picking winners (52-36 on the year), while Las Vegas was 9-5 picking winners (60-27-1 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 7 (Las Vegas odds in () ):

SUNDAY, 19 October:

San Diego (3-3) (-1.5) at Buffalo (4-1): San Diego by 3
Tennessee (5-0) (-7) at Kansas City (1-4): Tennessee by 10
Pittsburgh (4-1) (-9.5) at Cincinnati (0-6): Pittsburgh by 13
Baltimore (2-3) (+3) at Miami (2-3): Miami by 7
Dallas (4-2) (-7) at St. Louis (1-4): Dallas by 7
Minnesota (3-3) (+3) at Chicago (3-3): Chicago by 3
New Orleans (3-3) (+3) at Carolina (4-2): New Orleans by 3
San Francisco (2-4) (+10.5) at New York Giants (4-1): New York Giants by 13
Detroit (0-5) (+8.5) at Houston (1-4): Houston by 7
New York Jets (3-2) (-3.5) at Oakland (1-4): New York Jets by 7
Cleveland (2-3) (+7) at Washington (4-2): Washington by 6
Indianapolis (3-2) (-1) at Green Bay (3-3): Indianapolis by 3
Seattle (1-4) (+10.5) at Tampa Bay (4-2): Tampa Bay by 13

MONDAY, 20 October:

Denver (4-2) (+3) at New England (3-2): New England by 3

BYES: Cincinnati (0-6), Jacksonville (3-3), Arizona (4-2) and Philadelphia (3-3)

The Chargers had an almost perfect game against the Patriots, winning 30-10 and it wasn't that close. This week, the 3-3 Chargers travel to 4-1 Buffalo. I think this will be a close game - I call it Chargers 27, Bills 20.

At the risk of being laughed at, here are my NFL power ratings after six weeks:

1. Tennessee Titans (5-0) -- 31
2. New York Giants (4-1) -- 29
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) -- 27
4. Dallas Cowboys (4-2) -- 26
5. Buffalo Bills (4-1) -- 26

6. Tampa Bay Bucs (4-2) -- 25
7. Denver Broncos (4-2) - 24
8. Carolina Panthers (4-2) -- 24
9. Washington Redskins (4-2) -- 23
10. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) -- 23

11. Atlanta Falcons (4-2) -- 22
12. San Diego Chargers (3-3) -- 22
13. Indianapolis Colts (3-2) -- 22
14. New Orleans Saints (3-3) -- 21
15. New York Jets (3-2) -- 21

16. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) -- 21
17. Chicago Bears (3-3) -- 21
18. New England Patriots (3-2) -- 21
19. Baltimore Ravens (2-3) -- 20
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) -- 20

21. Green Bay Packers (3-3) -- 20
22. Minnesota Vikings (3-3) -- 19
23. Miami Dolphins (2-3) -- 19
24. San Francisco 49ers (2-4) -- 17
25. Cleveland Browns (2-3) -- 17

26. Houston Texans (1-4) -- 15
27. Oakland Raiders (1-4) -- 13
28. Seattle Seahawks (1-4) -- 12
29. Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) -- 10
30. St. Louis Rams (1-4) -- 10

31. Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) -- 10
32. Detroit Lions (0-5) -- 8

NFL Picks - Week 6

The fifth week of the NFL regular season was better for me than the fourth, but not by much. I was 10-4 picking winners (46-28 on the year), while Las Vegas was 9-5 picking winners (51-22-1 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 6 (Las Vegas odds in () ):

SUNDAY, 12 October:

New England (3-1) (+6.5) at San Diego (2-3): New England by 4
Oakland (1-3) (+7.5) at New Orleans (2-3): New Orleans by 9
Baltimore (2-2) (+5.5) at Indianapolis (2-2): Baltimore by 1
Cincinnati (0-5) (+6) at New York Jets (2-2): NY Jets by 7
Carolina (4-1) (+2) at Tampa Bay (3-2): Carolina by 3
Detroit (0-4) (+13.5) at Minnesota (2-3): Minnesota by 16
Chicago (3-2) (+2.5) at Atlanta (3-2): Chicago by 3
Miami (2-2) (+3) at Houston (0-4): Miami by 7
St. Louis (0-5) (+13.5) at Washington (4-1): Washington by 14
Jacksonville (2-3) (+3.5) at Denver (4-1): Jacksonville by 3
Philadelphia (2-3) (-5) at San Francisco (2-3): Philadelphia by 3
Dallas (4-1) (-5.5) at Arizona (3-2): Dallas by 7
Green Bay (2-3) (+3) at Seattle (1-3): Green Bay by 3

MONDAY, 13 October:

New York Giants (4-0) (-7.5) at Cleveland (1-3): NY Giants by 13

BYES: Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Tennessee.

The Chargers had another one of those games where the offense was impotent in the first half, behind 17-3 at half time. It didn't get much better as the Dolphins staged a goal line stand, and ran out the clock, to upset the Chargers 17-10. The defense got dominated by Miami's running game, which allowed Pennington to pass efficiently. The Chargers offensive line was dominated by the Dolphins line and backers, and the receivers couldn't get open. It was a terribly frustrating game to watch.

This week the New England Patriots come to town for a Sunday night game on NBC. Unless the Chargers heal fast (Chambers, Goff, Hardwick, Rivers, Gates, etc.), I don't see the Chargers offense being able to score more than 20 points. I don't think the Chargers' defense is that good - I call it New England 24, San Diego 20.

At the risk of being laughed at, here are my NFL power ratings after five weeks:

1. New York Giants (4-0) -- 31
2. Tennessee Titans (5-0) -- 31
3. Dallas Cowboys (4-1) -- 28
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) -- 27
5. Buffalo Bills (4-1) -- 26

6. Denver Broncos (4-1) - 26
7. Carolina Panthers (4-1) -- 26
8. Washington Redskins (4-1) -- 25
9. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-2) -- 24
10. Chicago Bears (3-2) -- 23

11. New England Patriots (3-1) -- 23
12. Baltimore Ravens (2-2) -- 22
13. Arizona Cardinals (3-2) -- 21
14. Atlanta Falcons (3-2) -- 21
15. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) -- 20

16. San Diego Chargers (2-3) -- 20
17. New Orleans Saints (2-3) -- 20
18. New York Jets (2-2) -- 20
19. Indianapolis Colts (2-2) -- 20
20. Miami Dolphins (2-2) -- 19

21. Green Bay Packers (2-3) -- 19
22. Minnesota Vikings (2-3) -- 19
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) -- 18
24. San Francisco 49ers (2-3) -- 18
25. Cleveland Browns (1-3) -- 15

26. Oakland Raiders (1-3) -- 14
27. Seattle Seahawks (1-3) -- 13
28. Houston Texans (0-4) -- 12
29. Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) -- 10
30. Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) -- 10

31. Detroit Lions (0-4) -- 9
32. St. Louis Rams (0-4) -- 8

NFL Picks - Week 5

The fourth week of the NFL regular season was not a good one for me, except for the Chargers win. I was 7-6 picking winners (36-24 on the year), while Las Vegas was 10-3 picking winners (42-17-1 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 4 (Las Vegas odds in () ):

Sunday, 5 October:

San Diego (2-2) (-7.5) at Miami (1-2): San Diego by 10
Indianapolis (1-2) (-3) at Houston (0-3): Indianapolis by 7
Tennessee (4-0) (-3) at Baltimore (2-1): Baltimore by 3
Kansas City (1-3) (+9.5) at Carolina (3-1): Carolina by 6
Washington (3-1) (+5.5) at Philadelphia (2-2): Washington by 3
Chicago (2-2) (-3) at Detroit (0-3): Chicago by 10
Atlanta (2-2) (+7) at Green Bay (2-2): Green Bay by 3
Seattle (1-2) (+7) at New York Giants (3-0): New York Giants by 17
Tampa Bay (3-1) (+3) at Denver (3-1): Denver by 7
New England (2-1) (-3) at San Francisco (2-2): New England by 7
Buffalo (4-0) (+1) at Arizona (2-2): Buffalo by 9
Cincinnati (0-4) (+13) at Dallas (3-1): Dallas by 24
Pittsburgh (3-1) (+4) at Jacksonville (2-2): Pittsburgh by 3

MONDAY, 6 October:

Minnesota (1-3) (+3) at New Orleans (2-2): Minnesota by 3

BYES: Oakland, Cleveland, New York Jets, St. Louis

The Chargers had another one of those games where the offense was impotent in the first half, behind 15-0 at half time. We scored a field goal in the 3rd quarter to make it 15-3, went ahead 18-5 but were tied by the Raiders at 18-18, then scored 10 points to make the final score 28-18 Bolts. The defense played the run much better in this game, had 6 sacks and a decent pass rush, and defended the long pass well.

This week, the Chargers are in Miami, which had a bye last week after beating the Patriots badly at New England. I think the Chargers are on a roll - I call it 34-24 Chargers.

At the risk of being laughed at, here are my NFL power ratings after four weeks:

1. New York Giants (3-0) -- 30
2. Tennessee Titans (4-0) -- 30
3. Buffalo Bills (4-0) -- 29
4. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) -- 26
5. Denver Broncos (3-1) - 24

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) -- 24
7. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) -- 24
8. Washington Redskins (3-1) -- 23
9. Carolina Panthers (3-1) -- 23
10. San Diego Chargers (2-2) -- 23

11. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) -- 23
12. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) -- 23
13. Green Bay Packers (2-2) -- 21
14. New Orleans Saints (2-2) -- 21
15. Chicago Bears (2-2) -- 21

16. New York Jets (2-2) -- 20
17. New England Patriots (2-1) -- 19
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) -- 19
19. Arizona Cardinals (2-2) -- 19
20. San Francisco 49ers (2-2) -- 19

21. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) -- 19
22. Seattle Seahawks (1-2) -- 19
23. Indianapolis Colts (1-2) -- 18
24. Miami Dolphins (1-2) -- 17
25. Cleveland Browns (1-3) -- 16

26. Minnesota Vikings (1-3) -- 16
27. Oakland Raiders (1-3) -- 15
28. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) -- 14
29. Houston Texans (0-3) -- 12
30. Cincinnati Bengals (0-4) -- 12

31. Detroit Lions (0-3) -- 9
32. St. Louis Rams (0-4) -- 8

NFL Picks - Week 4

The third week of the NFL regular season was not a happy one for me, except for the Chargers win. I was 9-7 picking winners (29-18 on the year), while Las Vegas was 12-4 picking winners (32-14-1 on the year).

Here are my picks for Week 4 (Las Vegas odds in () ):

Sunday, 28 September:

San Diego (1-2) (-7.5) at Oakland (1-2): San Diego by 10
Denver (3-0) (-9) at Kansas City (0-3): Denver by 14
Cleveland (0-3) (+3.5) at Cincinnati (0-3): Cleveland by 3
Houston (0-2) (+7.5) at Jacksonville (1-2): Jacksonville by 10
Arizona (2-1) (+2.5) at New York Jets (1-2): New York Jets by 7
San Francisco (2-1) (+6.5) at New Orleans (1-2): New Orleans by 3
Atlanta (2-1) (+7) at Carolina (2-1): Atlanta by 3
Minnesota (1-2) (+3) at Tennessee (3-0): Minnesota by 3
Green Bay (2-1) (+1.5) at Tampa Bay (2-1): Green Bay by 3
Buffalo (3-0) (-8) at St. Louis (0-3): Buffalo by 6
Washington (2-1) (+11.5) at Dallas (3-0): Dallas by 4
Philadelphia (2-1) (-3) at Chicago (1-2): Philadelphia by 3

MONDAY, 29 September:

Baltimore (2-0) (+3) at Pittsburgh (2-1): Baltimore by 3

BYES: NY Giants, Seattle, Detroit, Indianapolis, New England, Miami.

The home team is favored by Las Vegas in 10 of 13 games.

My Chargers played great on offense throughout the Jets game, racking up 41 points in a 48-29 win (the defense scored one TD, and set up the offense for two more). The defense played well until the 4th quarter, when they gave up three scoring drives but stopped the Jets on two occasions. Special teams really sucked - with an onside kick recovery and three long kickoff returns by the Jets to set up short drives.

The Chargers face the Raiders on Sunday. The Raiders are improved over last year, but cannot pass consistently. They do run well, and the Bolts' defense might be in for a long day if they can't stop the run. Being the optimist I usually am, I think it will be Chargers 34-24.

NFL Picks - Week 3

The second week of the NFL regular season is in the bag, and I was 10-5 picking winners (20-11 on the year), while Las Vegas was 9-6 picking winners (20-10-1 on the year)

Here are my picks for Week 3 (Las Vegas odds in () ):

Sunday, 21 September:

Kansas City (0-2) (+5.5) at Atlanta (1-1): Atlanta by 10
Oakland (1-1) (+9.5) at Buffalo (2-0): Buffalo by 6
Houston (0-1) (+5.5) at Tennessee (2-0): Houston by 3
Cincinnati (0-2) (+13.5) at NY Giants (2-0): NY Giants by 17
Arizona (2-0) (+3) at Washington (1-1): Washington by 7
Miami (0-2) (+12.5) at New England (2-0): New England by 13
Tampa Bay (1-1) (+3.5) at Chicago (1-1): Tampa Bay by 3
Carolina (2-0) (+3) at Minnesota (0-2): Carolina by 3
St. Louis (0-2) (+10) at Seattle (0-2): Seattle by 13
Detroit (0-2) (+4) at San Francisco (1-1): San Francisco by 7
New Orleans (1-1) (+5.5) at Denver (2-0): Denver by 4
Pittsburgh (2-0) (+3) at Philadelphia (1-1): Pittsburgh by 3
Jacksonville (0-2) (+5.5) at Indianapolis (1-1): Jacksonville by 3
Cleveland (0-2) (+2) at Baltimore (0-1): Cleveland by 3

MONDAY, 22 September:

NY Jets (1-1) (+9.5) at San Diego (0-2): San Diego by 3

The home team is favored by Las Vegas in 15 of 16 games.

My Chargers played poorly on offense in the first quarter, and poorly on defense in three quarters against Denver, who eked out a 39-38 victory with the help of two botched referee calls. Of course, if the defense had stopped the Broncos on any one of Denver's TD drives, we would be 1-1. The running game is still poor - blocking especially. The pass blocking is mediocre too - Rivers buys time with his feet well. The defense overruns running plays and can't rush the passer effectively. The pass coverage is only fair.

The Monday Night Football game against the Jets is a real must-win for both teams. I'm tempted to say the Chargers will win 37-34 in a shootout between Rivers and Favre. Will Tomlinson play effectively? Will the pass rush play well? I'm not optimistic.

NFL Picks - Week 2

The first week of the NFL regular season is in the bag, and I was 10-6 picking winners (Las Vegas was 11-4-1 picking winners.

Here are my picks for Week 2 (Las Vegas odds in () ):

Sunday, 14 September:

San Diego (0-1) (-2.5) at Denver (1-0) -- Denver by 1
Oakland (0-1) (+4) at Kansas City (0-1) -- KC by 3
Tennessee (1-0) (+1.5) at Cincinnati (0-1) -- Tennessee by 3
Indianapolis (0-1) (-2) at Minnesota (0-1) -- Indianapolis by 7
New Orleans (1-0) (+1.5) at Washington (0-1) -- New Orleans by 3

Green Bay (1-0) (-3) at Detroit (0-1) -- Green Bay by 13
Chicago (1-0) (+3) at Carolina (1-0) -- Carolina by 3
NY Giants (1-0) (-8) at St. Louis (0-1) -- NY Giants by 17
Buffalo (1-0) (+6) at Jacksonville (0-1) -- Buffalo by 3
Atlanta (1-0) (+9) at Tampa Bay (0-1) -- Atlanta by 3

San Francisco (0-1) (+9) at Seattle (0-1) -- Seattle by 17
Miami (0-1) (+7) at Arizona (1-0) -- Arizona by 10
New England (1-0) (+3) at NY Jets (1-0) -- New England by 3
Baltimore (1-0) (+5) at Houston (0-1) -- Baltimore by 3
Pittsburgh (1-0) (-5.5) at Cleveland (0-1) -- Pittsburgh by 3

MONDAY, 15 September:

Philadelphia (1-0) (+7.5) at Dallas (1-0) -- Dallas by 3

My San Diego Chargers lost to Carolina at home in Week 1 - poor blocking and tackling in the first half, and an inability to harass the QB in the second half - Carolina marched down the field to score the winning TD on the last play of the game. Merriman is out on IR with his knee. Tomlinson got banged up a bit.

My Chargers game prediction - San Diego 23, Denver 24. It won't be easy this week, either. The Chargers stuffed the Broncos twice last year, and they haven't forgotten it. A loss by the Bolts to Denver puts them 2 behind in the AFC West after two weeks. It's a must-win for the Chargers. Do they have enough defense to keep it close?

NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL regular season starts this weekend, and I'm going to try to pick winners again this year. This didn't work out too well last year - I was 154-102 in the regular season - only 60.2% picking winners.

Here are my picks for Week 1 (Las Vegas odds in () ):

Thursday, September 4th

Washington (+4) at New York Giants - NY Giants by 13

Sunday, September 7th

Detroit (+1) at Atlanta - Detroit by 6
Cincinnati (-1) at Baltimore - Baltimore by 7
Seattle (Pk) at Buffalo - Buffalo by 3
New York Jets (-2.5) at Miami - NY Jets by 3
Kansas City (off) at New England - Patriots by 30
Tampa Bay (+3) at New Orleans - New Orleans by 7
St. Louis (+7) at Philadelphia - Philadelphia by 9
Houston (+7) at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh by 6
Jacksonville (-3) at Tennessee - Jacksonville by 3
Dallas (-3) at Cleveland - Cleveland by 3
Carolina (+9.5) at San Diego - San Diego by 10
Arizona (-2.5) at San Francisco - Arizona by 6
Chicago (+9.5) at Indianapolis - Chicago by 3

Monday, September 8th

Minnesota (+3) at Green Bay - Minnesota by 3
Denver (-1) at Oakland - Oakland by 3

Game on!

My San Diego Chargers (I'm a 48th year fan...) are supposed to go all the way. The San Diego Union today writer thought they would win the AFC West and go 12-4 in the regular season. I'm always a pessimist with the Chargers. Right now, injuries to Marcus McNeill, Jamal Williams, Shawne Merriman and Antonio Gates - all Pro Bowl players - threaten the offensive and defensive schemes. A critical injury to Tomlinson or Rivers would likely cripple the team for the season.

My Chargers prediction - San Diego 27, Carolina 17. It won't be easy this week.

The Chargers Season

Since the Chargers lost 21-12 to New England on Sunday, I wanted to summarize the season as I saw it.

1) The Chargers fired Marty Schottenheimer in January mainly because he couldn't or wouldn't get along with the GM, A J. Smith. The "official excuse" was that he couldn't win in the playoffs...and his record surely showed that was true.

2) The Chargers hired Norv Turner as head coach in February, and of course he hasn't won in the playoffs either. But I was sure that he could get along with AJ Smith!

3) In the mean time, the Chargers lost their offensive coordinator to be head coach of the Dolphins (who were 1-15), and their defensive coordinator, Wade Phillips, to be head coach of the Cowboys (who were 13-4). No problem, Norv will call the plays and they'll bring in Ted Cottrell from the NFL office to be the defensive coordinator.

4) The draft came and the Chargers drafted pretty well - WR Buster Davis, LB Anthony Waters, and several others.

5) The pre-season came and the Chargers played all of their backups and pared the roster down.

6) The Chargers won their first game, 14-3 over the Super Bowl losers - the Chicago Bears. We all marveled at the defense, and thought that the sluggish offense was due to the Bears defense.

7) The Chargers lost their next three games, to New England, Green Bay and Kansas City, showing poor defense and a sluggish offense (all three teams stopped the run and forced Rivers to pass). The WRs and Rivers didn't seem on the same page and the offensive line couldn't block well. The defense was getting hit by quick slants and outs to the backs, and tackling was poor. Chris Chambers was traded for and quickly became a favorite target of Rivers.

8) The Chargers were 4-2 over the next 6 games, getting better offense by throwing first and running second, but were beaten by Minnesota (giving up almost 400 yards rushing) and Jacksonville (a physical game - they won by running and passing well). There were still offensive line blocking problems but the passing games picked up. Special teams touchdowns won Colts game, along with a lucky FG miss. Now they were 5-5 and ready for a playoff push - in the AFC West, 4-2 over the last 6 games would do it.

9) The team went 6-0 over the last six games, but the only winning team they played was Tennessee, and that was an overtime struggle on the road. The offense still disappeared for whole halves, but the defense seemed to improve against the pass. 11-5 was great after a 1-3 start! Norv was a hero, Rivers had it going, LT was back in form, and the defense played well.

10) The playoffs - we were all cautiously hopeful - we remembered last year and the players were saying all the right things. Tennessee was the first opponent, and the team played well on both sides of the ball, although Antonio Gates got hurt. Indianapolis on the road was the next challenge, and we won 28-24, but LT got hurt early and Rivers was hurt at the end of the 3rd quarter. Billy Volek drove the team for the winning touchdown.

11) For the New England game, we knew LT, Rivers and Gates were hurt, but we didn't know how badly. LT lasted 4 plays ... Rivers played the whole game with a knee brace to support his right knee (after secret arthroscopic surgery on Monday). Gates played was not a factor. The offensive line protected Rivers decently, but the team could not score TDs - 4 FGs. The defense harassed Brady and picked him 3 times, but couldn't stop their offense three times. It was a great effort by a team with their offense hobbled.

So -- what now? In looking back over the season, I have these observations:

* The offensive line really doesn't run-block well - most running yards are obtained on LT cutbacks and outside flicks. Sweeps were non-existent, it seems. Offensive design? Slow guards? Stacked defenses? Perhaps.

* The passing game was mainly down the field - Chambers and Jackson were great in the 15-25 yard range - good hands, good feet, big targets. Gates disappeared late in the year, and dropped some balls.

* The defensive line didn't stop the run late in games. Injuries to Castillo and Williams didn't help, but the subs Bingham and McKinney and Cesaire played pretty well. The outside LBs Phillips and Merriman over pursued a lot and teams took advantage by throwing to the backs. I don't see the value of an outside rush that ends up 5 yards in back of the QB, it opens it up for a QB scramble to the sideline. The inside LBs didn't blitz much all year - and were not real effective in coverage. They rushed only 4 in crunch time, which permitted downfield passes.

* The defensive backs had a great year - the 3 DBs are able to cover man-to-man, but the safeties aren't. IMHO, they played too much zone defense, especially in crunch time.

* The special teams played well - except for kickoff depth. Kaeding got hurt in the Denver game, and kicked poorly in the Patriots game. He was 21 for 24 in the season and 4 for 6 in the playoffs. Scifres punted well. The cover teams did well. The return teams shined at times.

What do the Chargers need for next season?

* A backup running back to replace Turner - someone big with good hands, able to block and quick enough to get outside.

* A right guard and right tackle that can pass block better and run block better.

* A big-time inside linebacker.

* A rangy cornerback to replace Florence.

* Better running plays with more variety in the play calling.

* Better short passing game - we need to control the clock. Two inside runs and a 15 yard pass is not the way to play. Shorter third down yardage is a must.

I like Philip Rivers spirit and his play execution. I wish they would use more comeback routes when he scrambles. I wish they would throw more to the backs 10 yards downfield.

Well - those are my opinions. It was a good but not excellent year. On to 2008!

NFL Picks - Conference Championship Games

I was 1-3 in picking winners of the Division Playoff games (Las Vegas was 2-2), the only game I got right was the no-brainer Patriots over the Jaguars, and I missed on the only upset I picked (Seattle over Green Bay). I am 158-106 (60.3%) on the season.

My Chargers persevered and overcame the Colts potent passing attack to win 28-24 in a come from behind victory with QB Philip Rivers (out at end of 3rd quarter) and RB Ladainian Tomlinson on the bench (out in 2nd quarter). The Bolts played a decent game - with enough running offense to keep the Colts defense honest, timely passing, especially on 3rd down, enough defense to make Manning make mistakes in the 4th quarter, and decent special teams. I predicted a Colts win 31-21, but didn't foresee 3 Indy turnovers in the red zone or two 4th down stops at the end - credit the Bolts defense for the turnovers and the stops. The score was 10-7 Colts at half time, and the teams traded the lead after that, ending up 28-24 Bolts. I'm happy to be wrong with my predictions! At least I felt like we earned this win, unlike the Titans game where we got lucky.

Now the Chargers travel to New England to play the Patriots in the cold (with snow??), but the Bolts seem to be an all weather team - good running game, quick receivers, good defense. New England beat the Chargers badly in Week 2, 38-14, but nobody expects that bad of a beating this time around. The Chargers are much improved since then, but the Pats are too, and they have the 17-0 streak going. The Chargers have some injuries to Rivers, Tomlinson and Gates, so the backups may have to carry some of the load. I'm going to predict a Patriots win, 27-20 but I will be ecstatic to be wrong again!

Here are my Conference Championship game picks of winners (Vegas favorites denoted by odds, home team denoted with an H):

NFC Championship:

* Green Bay (14-3) (H) (-7) over New York Giants (13-5). I will guess 24-21 Packers for this one - weather may be a factor, but good defenses on both sides will be a bigger factor.

AFC Championship:

* New England (17-0) (H) (-14.5) over San Diego (13-5). I think that this will be a great game, unless weather plays a big part in it. Defenses will play a huge part in this game, and special teams might also. They key for the Chargers will be to not make offensive mistakes and for the defense to get turnovers. With decent weather, I think the Chargers come close, say 27-20 Patriots.

NFL Picks - Division Playoff Games

I was 3-1 in picking winners of the Wild Card playoff games (Las Vegas was 2-2), and I hit 2 of the 3 upsets I picked. I am 157-103 (60.4%) on the season.

My Chargers struggled against Tennessee, playing poorly in the first half - they were dominated by Tennessee's defense, but were behind only 6-0 at the half. The Bolts dominated the second half, scoring 17 unanswered points to win 17-6. They challenged Philip Rivers to beat them, and he did by throwing medium to long passes on third down. The Titans shut down the Chargers running game by putting 8 in the box and dared Rivers to throw. The Bolts pass protection was much better this game than the first game against Tennessee. The defense played very well the whole game, although the Titans ran well in the first quarter. Now they travel to Indianapolis to play the Colts indoors, which is a mixed blessing. There will be no weather effects, but crowd noise becomes an issue.

Here are my Division Playoff picks of winners (Vegas favorites denoted by odds, home team denoted with an H):

NFC Playoff Games:

* Seattle Seahawks (11-6) over Green Bay (13-3) (H) (-8). I will guess 20-17 Seattle for this one - weather will likely be a factor.

* Dallas Cowboys (13-3) (H) (-7.5) over New York Giants (11-6). Dallas is just too tough, I'll guess it won't be close, 30-16 Dallas.

AFC Playoff Games:

* New England (16-0) (H) (-13.5) over Jacksonville (12-5). I think that this will be the best game of the weekend, unless weather plays a big part in it. With decent weather, I think Jacksonville makes this a game, say 27-24 Patriots.

* Indianapolis (13-3) (H) (-8.5) over San Diego (12-5). The Colts have all of their weapons back and incentive to beat the Chargers. I see this game a 31-21 romp for the Colts, unless the Bolts get some special teams touchdowns.

There is almost always at least one upset in this round, and the game that makes the most sense to me is Seattle beating Green Bay even though it is in Green Bay. I don't see how the Giants or Chargers beat well balanced teams playing at home. I think Jacksonville is nearly the equal of the Patriots, but the game is in New England and perhaps in bad weather.